“一带一路”倡议中的战略支点选择研究
发布时间：2018-08-16 15:55
【摘要】："一带一路"倡议是中国发展战略规划上的一次伟大创举,自倡议提出以来得到了国内外媒体的热议和学界的高度关注,学术成果呈现"百家争鸣,百花齐放"之势。但通过对国内外"一带一路"相关学术研究成果的梳理,发现目前相关领域的研究存在着"重地缘政治视角、轻战略视角"的缺憾。作为一项国家大战略,"一带一路"在战略理论框架内的学术研究价值同样值得深入发掘。倡议提出后,先后有60多个国家表达了参与共建的意愿。任何国家的战略资源都是有限的,如何实现精准投放和有效对接,让有限的战略资源产生最大的地缘政治效力,将是"一带一路"倡议的政策制定者和推进实施者必须解决的难题。对于这一问题,战略支点概念能够为解决这一难题带来一定的启发和思路。针对"一带一路"在现实层面的资源分配问题,本研究从中国与战略支点国家的双边关系入手,运用层次分析法和实证研究,探讨支点国家对于平稳高效推进"一带一路"的必要性和重要战略意义、如何根据中国"一带一路"的战略目标选择相应的支点国家以及面对支点国家的有利条件和潜在风险,如何长善救失、趋利避害,为构建中国的战略支点国家体系提供有价值的对策和建议。延续麦金德和布热津斯基的概念逻辑,结合国内学者的部分观点,本文将"一带一路"倡议中的战略支点界定为拥有军事、经济、意识形态或其他重要战略资源,与中国存在战略契合点,现在或将来有可能与中国有着稳定、可预期和可以抵抗一定外部冲击的战略合作关系的国家。战略支点既不同于联盟中的盟国,又不同于一般意义上的双边伙伴关系,而是高度契合了目前中国在周边外交中提出的打造"支点国家"的理念。在分析可行性、战略价值、合作基础与意愿、潜在风险等因素基础上,战略支点的选择应符合一定的标准,即具有地缘战略价值、与中国战略利益协调一致以及具备合作的意愿和能力三点。依据这三点标准,"一带一路"沿线国家中具备成为支点国家潜力的主要有七个国家,分别是东北亚的俄罗斯,东南亚的印度尼西亚和泰国,南亚的巴基斯坦,中亚的哈萨克斯坦,西亚的土耳其,欧洲的德国。这七个国家都具备较强的地区影响力,在维护地区局势稳定、密切经济合作和发展基础设施建设等某一方面或多方面对中国存在利益诉求,且与中国不存在领土争议或其他结构性矛盾。正如任何硬币都有正反两面,战略支点国家在构建过程中也或多或少存在着一定的风险和挑战。针对这些潜在的风险,中国需要遵循差异化原则、长期性原则、尊重主权原则、兼顾公共外交与官方外交的原则,从政治、制度、物质、文化四个维度着手,在有效管理风险的基础上,推进"一带一路""沿线支点国家的建设和维护,确保支点国家充分发挥应有的作用。打造"一带一路"沿线的战略支点国家将为倡议的生根发芽、枝繁叶茂提供充分支持和有力保障。支点国家的政策协调和配合能够缩短政策沟通的时间和人力成本,高效有序地推进"五通"建设,促进先导示范项目快速""落地"",带动整个地区的参与积极性;另一方面,支点国家对"五通""的正面影响不仅仅局限于"一带一路"的推进,而是能够在保障能源运输线路安全、保护中国海外利益、拓展中国周边外交等多个层面上产生效果外溢和连锁作用。更为重要的是,在理论层面上将战略支点概念应用到中国"一带一路"倡议的推进中,不仅可以为目前国内"一带一路"相关研究提供一种较为新颖的视角,还能从地缘政治层面,为倡议实践的合理性和可行性提供强有力的理论依据。
[Abstract]:The "one belt and one way" initiative is a great pioneering undertaking in China's development strategic planning. Since its initiative, it has received high attention from the media and academia at home and abroad, and the academic achievements show the trend of "hundred schools of thought contending and letting a hundred flowers bloom." The study has the shortcomings of "Geopolitical Perspective and strategic perspective". As a national strategy, the academic value of the "one belt and one road" strategy within the framework of strategic theory is also worth exploring. After the proposal was put forward, more than 60 countries expressed their willingness to participate in building together. The precise allocation and effective docking of the limited strategic resources to maximize geopolitical effectiveness will be a difficult problem for policy makers and implementers of the "one way" initiative. To solve this problem, the concept of strategic fulcrum can provide some inspiration and ideas for solving this problem. From the perspective of bilateral relations between China and strategic fulcrum countries, this paper applies AHP and empirical research to explore the necessity and strategic significance of the fulcrum countries in promoting the "one belt and one way" smoothly and efficiently, and how to choose the corresponding fulcrum countries and regions according to the strategic objectives of "one belt and one road". The favorable conditions and potential risks to the fulcrum countries, how to make good use of the advantages and disadvantages, and seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, provide valuable countermeasures and suggestions for the construction of China's strategic fulcrum national system. Military, economic, ideological, or other important strategic resources have strategic points of convergence with China, and countries with stable, predictable, and resistant strategic cooperation with China are or may be in the future. Based on the analysis of feasibility, strategic value, basis and willingness of cooperation, potential risks and other factors, the choice of strategic fulcrum should meet certain criteria, that is, it has geostrategic value, coordinates with China's strategic interests and has cooperation. According to these three points, the seven countries that have the potential to become fulcrum countries are Russia in Northeast Asia, Indonesia and Thailand in Southeast Asia, Pakistan in South Asia, Kazakhstan in Central Asia, Turkey in Western Asia, and Germany in Europe. These seven countries are all three countries. With strong regional influence, China has interests in one or more aspects of maintaining regional stability, close economic cooperation and infrastructure development, and there is no territorial disputes or other structural contradictions with China. In the light of these potential risks, China needs to follow the principles of differentiation, long-term principle, respect for the principle of sovereignty, give consideration to the principles of public diplomacy and official diplomacy, and proceed from the four dimensions of politics, system, material and culture, and promote the "one belt and one road" "fulcrum" along the basis of effective management risk. The construction and maintenance of the family will ensure the fulfilling role of the fulcrum countries. Building a strategic fulcrum along the "one belt and one road" will provide sufficient support and strong guarantee for the initiative and flourishing of the initiative. The policy coordination and cooperation of the fulcrum countries can shorten the time and manpower cost of the policy gap and promote the "Five" in an efficient and orderly way. To promote the participation of the whole region, the positive influence of the fulcrum countries on the "five links" is not limited to the promotion of "one belt and one road", but rather, it can guarantee the safety of energy transmission routes, protect China's overseas interests and expand China's Peripheral Diplomacy. More importantly, applying the concept of strategic fulcrum to the advancement of China's "one belt and one road" initiative at a theoretical level can not only provide a relatively new perspective for the current "one way and one way" study in China, but also provide geopolitical level for the rationality and feasibility of the proposed practice. Strong theoretical basis.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F125
[Abstract]:The "one belt and one way" initiative is a great pioneering undertaking in China's development strategic planning. Since its initiative, it has received high attention from the media and academia at home and abroad, and the academic achievements show the trend of "hundred schools of thought contending and letting a hundred flowers bloom." The study has the shortcomings of "Geopolitical Perspective and strategic perspective". As a national strategy, the academic value of the "one belt and one road" strategy within the framework of strategic theory is also worth exploring. After the proposal was put forward, more than 60 countries expressed their willingness to participate in building together. The precise allocation and effective docking of the limited strategic resources to maximize geopolitical effectiveness will be a difficult problem for policy makers and implementers of the "one way" initiative. To solve this problem, the concept of strategic fulcrum can provide some inspiration and ideas for solving this problem. From the perspective of bilateral relations between China and strategic fulcrum countries, this paper applies AHP and empirical research to explore the necessity and strategic significance of the fulcrum countries in promoting the "one belt and one way" smoothly and efficiently, and how to choose the corresponding fulcrum countries and regions according to the strategic objectives of "one belt and one road". The favorable conditions and potential risks to the fulcrum countries, how to make good use of the advantages and disadvantages, and seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, provide valuable countermeasures and suggestions for the construction of China's strategic fulcrum national system. Military, economic, ideological, or other important strategic resources have strategic points of convergence with China, and countries with stable, predictable, and resistant strategic cooperation with China are or may be in the future. Based on the analysis of feasibility, strategic value, basis and willingness of cooperation, potential risks and other factors, the choice of strategic fulcrum should meet certain criteria, that is, it has geostrategic value, coordinates with China's strategic interests and has cooperation. According to these three points, the seven countries that have the potential to become fulcrum countries are Russia in Northeast Asia, Indonesia and Thailand in Southeast Asia, Pakistan in South Asia, Kazakhstan in Central Asia, Turkey in Western Asia, and Germany in Europe. These seven countries are all three countries. With strong regional influence, China has interests in one or more aspects of maintaining regional stability, close economic cooperation and infrastructure development, and there is no territorial disputes or other structural contradictions with China. In the light of these potential risks, China needs to follow the principles of differentiation, long-term principle, respect for the principle of sovereignty, give consideration to the principles of public diplomacy and official diplomacy, and proceed from the four dimensions of politics, system, material and culture, and promote the "one belt and one road" "fulcrum" along the basis of effective management risk. The construction and maintenance of the family will ensure the fulfilling role of the fulcrum countries. Building a strategic fulcrum along the "one belt and one road" will provide sufficient support and strong guarantee for the initiative and flourishing of the initiative. The policy coordination and cooperation of the fulcrum countries can shorten the time and manpower cost of the policy gap and promote the "Five" in an efficient and orderly way. To promote the participation of the whole region, the positive influence of the fulcrum countries on the "five links" is not limited to the promotion of "one belt and one road", but rather, it can guarantee the safety of energy transmission routes, protect China's overseas interests and expand China's Peripheral Diplomacy. More importantly, applying the concept of strategic fulcrum to the advancement of China's "one belt and one road" initiative at a theoretical level can not only provide a relatively new perspective for the current "one way and one way" study in China, but also provide geopolitical level for the rationality and feasibility of the proposed practice. Strong theoretical basis.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F125
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