人力资本对贵州省经济增长的贡献研究

发布时间：2018-08-25 07:44

【摘要】：随着经济社会快速发展,网络信息化时代的到来,人才和技术知识的储备成为一国经济能否持续发展的关键所在,人力资本成为促进经济发展的关键因素,人力资本对经济增长的贡献也成为国内外研究热点。贵州省地处内陆,是西部地区自然资源十分丰富而又欠开发、欠发展的省份,主要经济指标位列全国倒数几位。虽然近几年来贵州的经济增长速度一路拔高,但是由于经济发展起点较低,经济发展还是处于较低水平。而人力资本作为现代经济增长的源泉,是推动现代经济发展的重要引擎,也是经济持续、快速、健康发展的不竭动力,对社会经济发展起着决定性的作用。当前贵州正处于全面开放、转变经济增长方式、优化产业结构的关键时期,正确认识和深入分析人力资本质量与结构对经济增长的贡献,并据此得出增加人力资本积累的相关对策,不仅关系到经济优化升级与结构转型是否可以顺利完成,也影响到经济是否得以持续、健康和快速发展。那么,贵州省人力资本对经济增长的贡献率有多少,是否是促进经济发展的主要因素?又怎样才能促使经济保持较快的发展速度和经济结构的转型?针对这些问题,文章对影响贵州省经济发展的物质资本存量、人力资本存量等因素在经济增长中的贡献率进行了研究,其中重点分析了人力资本对经济增长的促进作用。本文结合贵州省产业结构与人力资本现状,根据柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,以贵州省人力资本对经济增长的贡献率为研究对象,样本区间为1990-2013年,采用有效劳动模型和人力资本外部性模型,以地区生产总值为因变量,物质资本存量、人力资本存量等要素为自变量,运用Eviews回归分析,利用有效劳动模型计算的物质资本对经济增长的贡献率为62.16%,人力资本存量贡献率为28.55%,综合要素贡献率为9.29%。利用人力资本外部性模型计算的物质资本对经济增长的贡献率为64.69%,人力资本存量贡献率为26.72%,人力资本水平贡献率为3.89%,综合要素贡献率为4.70%。并根据有效劳动模型和人力资本外部性模型测算出人力资本直接贡献率为28.65%,间接贡献率为2.19%,总的贡献率为30.83%。由此分析得出当前贵州省经济增长主要依靠物质资本的大量投入,说明贵州省经济发展的方式亟待转变。并根据贵州省人力资本存量、质量等方面存在的问题提出了要加大高等教育投资,合理配置教育资源,增大科技投资力度,将农村人口转化为经济增长的动力,引进区域外人力资本和人力资本投资,提高医疗保障水平等政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy and society and the arrival of the era of network information, the reserve of talents and technical knowledge becomes the key to the sustainable development of a country's economy, and human capital becomes the key factor to promote the economic development. The contribution of human capital to economic growth has also become a hot topic at home and abroad. Guizhou Province is located inland, is rich in natural resources and underdeveloped in the western region, the main economic indicators rank at the bottom of the country. Although the economic growth rate of Guizhou has been rising all the way in recent years, the economic development is still at a low level because of the low starting point of economic development. As the source of modern economic growth, human capital is an important engine to promote the development of modern economy, and also the inexhaustible power of sustained, rapid and healthy economic development, which plays a decisive role in the development of social economy. At present, Guizhou is in a critical period of opening up, changing the mode of economic growth and optimizing the industrial structure. The contribution of the quality and structure of human capital to economic growth is correctly understood and deeply analyzed. On the basis of this, the relevant countermeasures to increase the accumulation of human capital are not only related to whether the economic optimization and upgrading and structural transformation can be completed smoothly, but also to the sustained, healthy and rapid development of the economy. So, how much contribution rate of Guizhou human capital to economic growth is the main factor to promote economic development? What can we do to keep the economy developing at a faster pace and restructuring the economy? In view of these problems, the paper studies the contribution rate of the material capital stock and human capital stock in the economic growth of Guizhou province, especially analyzes the promoting effect of human capital on the economic growth. According to the current situation of industrial structure and human capital in Guizhou Province and according to Cobb-Douglas production function, this paper takes the contribution rate of human capital to economic growth in Guizhou Province as the research object. The sample range is 1990-2013. By using effective labor model and human capital externality model, taking the regional GDP as dependent variable, material capital stock and human capital stock as independent variables, Eviews regression analysis is used. The contribution rate of material capital to economic growth calculated by effective labor model is 62.16, the contribution rate of human capital stock is 28.55, and the contribution rate of comprehensive elements is 9.29. The contribution rate of physical capital to economic growth is 64.69, the contribution rate of human capital stock is 26.72, the contribution rate of human capital level is 3.89, and the contribution rate of comprehensive elements is 4.70. According to the effective labor model and the externality model of human capital, the direct contribution rate of human capital is 28.65, the indirect contribution rate is 2.19, and the total contribution rate is 30.83. From this analysis, it is concluded that Guizhou's economic growth mainly depends on a large amount of investment of material capital, which indicates that the mode of Guizhou's economic development needs to be changed urgently. According to the problems existing in the stock and quality of human capital in Guizhou province, the paper puts forward that we should increase the investment in higher education, allocate educational resources rationally, increase the intensity of investment in science and technology, and transform the rural population into the motive force of economic growth. Introduction of human capital and human capital investment outside the region, improve the level of medical security and other policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：贵州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F249.27;F127

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