基于层次分析法的甘南州PRED系统协调发展研究

发布时间：2018-09-05 14:53

【摘要】：随着快速增长的人口,人类经济活动的强度和人类社会活动的广度都前所未有地加剧和扩张,人类和自然界的关系越发的失调,人口问题、资源问题以及环境和经济社会发展的问题不仅是困扰着全球经济的发展,同时也困扰着我国,它更成为青藏高原地区所面临的严峻问题。甘南牧区地处青藏高原东缘,黄河、长江的上游,是主要的水源涵养区。因此,研究和分析甘南州PRED系统协调发展,探索人与自然的和谐发展之路,是甘南州生态环境良性运行,居民幸福指数稳步提升的重要途径。这篇文章以甘南州PRED系统协调发为主题,采用层次分析法,从而建立PRED系统协调发展的评价指标体系,并定量分析与研究了甘南州PRED系统协调发展,旨在找出甘南州PRED系统协调发展过程中存在的问题并提出解决办法。该评价指标体系共分为三级评价指标,其中第一级指标包括人口系统、资源系统、环境系统和经济社会发展系统,共4个指标;第二级指标包括人口数量、人口质量、种植业、畜牧业、林业、环境污染、环境治理、经济总量、经济效益、生活水平,共10个指标;第三级指标包括人口自然增长率、年末人口总数、人口出生率等共计30个指标。对甘南州PRED系统协调发展的综合评价结果为:在零五年到一四年之间,甘南州总体的PRED系统协调发展能力一直处于不断上升的走势,通过计算可见甘南州PRED系统协调发展水平正在由基本可持续向可持续发展能力强的方向过渡,甘南州环境系统协调发展综合指数较低,这将会成为甘南州PRED系统协调发展中面临的主要问题。最后根据甘南州PRED系统协调发展中存在的问题提出针对性的对策建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid growth of population, the intensity of human economic activities and the breadth of human social activities have increased and expanded unprecedented, the relationship between human beings and nature has become more and more unbalanced, population problems, The problem of resources, environment and economic and social development not only puzzles the development of global economy, but also puzzles our country. It has become a serious problem in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau region. Gannan pastoral area is located in the eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Yellow River, the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, is the main water conservation area. Therefore, it is an important way to study and analyze the coordinated development of PRED system in Gannan state and to explore the harmonious development road between man and nature. This paper takes the coordinated development of PRED system in Gannan state as the theme, adopts the analytic hierarchy process to establish the evaluation index system of the coordinated development of the PRED system, and quantitatively analyzes and studies the coordinated development of the PRED system in Gannan state. The purpose of this paper is to find out the problems existing in the process of coordinated development of PRED system in Gannan state and to put forward solutions. The evaluation index system is divided into three levels: the first level includes population system, resource system, environment system and economic and social development system, and the second level includes population quantity, population quality, planting industry. Animal husbandry, forestry, environmental pollution, environmental control, economic aggregate, economic efficiency, living standard, a total of 10 indicators; the third level of indicators include the natural growth rate of population, the total population at the end of the year, population birth rate total of 30 indicators. The comprehensive evaluation results of the coordinated development of PRED system in Gannan state are as follows: from 2005 to 2014, the overall ability of coordinated development of PRED system in Gannan state has been on the rise. It can be seen from the calculation that the level of coordinated development of PRED system in Gannan state is transitioning from basic sustainable to strong ability of sustainable development, and the comprehensive index of coordinated development of environmental system in Gannan is relatively low. This will become the main problem in the coordinated development of Gannan PRED system. Finally, according to the problems existing in the coordinated development of Gannan PRED system, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：西北民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127

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