我国政府公共投资对产业结构影响的实证研究
发布时间：2018-09-09 15:29
【摘要】：当前我国正处在产业结构调整和产业优化的时期,而当前我国经济发展中存在的结构性问题仍然很明显,增长动力结构不合理,城乡区域发展不平衡,农业基础仍然薄弱,制造业质量不高,服务业发展相对滞后。这些结构性问题制约我国当前的经济发展。产业结构的调整与演变,是主导产业及以主导产业为核心的产业体系不断更新替代的过程,是随着社会经济发展阶段的不同而不断发生转换的动态过程,在此过程中,政府始终通过产业政策等政策工具干预产业结构的调整。同时,政府的公共投资行为也对产业结构产生深刻影响,在这一时期,我们决不能忽视政府公共投资在产业结构调整中的重要作用,产业结构的调整一方面离不开政府公共投资的积极参与,另一方面如果政府忽视产业结构的市场变化,而是以行政手段进行公共投资,必然会造成产业结构的同构化。我国每年政府公共投资量巨大,这些政府公共投资对于产业结构的优化到底是起到了促进作用还是阻碍作用,影响作用的大小如何,这些问题很有必要进行深入的研究。 本文首先梳理了近年来国内外学者的研究成果,分析了公共投资和产业结构的理论基础,并在这两者的基础上找寻了有关政府公共投资对产业结构影响的相关文献。其次,在找寻了相关理论的基础上,分析了影响政府公共投资的因素及影响产业结构的因素。从宏观角度介绍了公共投资和产业结构的发展历程,分别分析了我国公共投资和产业结构发展过程和现状及国外公共投资和产业结构变迁的历程,通过国内外及我国不同时期的对比分析,找出我国当前政府公共投资和产业结构当前各自存在的问题；运用计量经济的方法研究公共投资对产业结构调整的影响,实证部分主要是运用协整分析、误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解计量分析工具,对我国公共投资与宏观经济结构的关系进行了短期和长期的实证研究,通过实证结果发现了政府公共投资对于不同产业有着不同的影响作用,这些作用有些是短期比较明显,有些是长期比较明显。
[Abstract]:At present, China is in the period of industrial restructuring and industrial optimization, and the structural problems existing in China's economic development are still obvious, such as unreasonable growth dynamic structure, unbalanced development between urban and rural areas, weak agricultural foundation, low quality of manufacturing industry, and relatively backward development of service industry. Current economic development. The adjustment and evolution of industrial structure is a process of continuous renewal and substitution of the leading industry and the industrial system with the leading industry as the core. It is a dynamic process of continuous transformation with the different stages of social and economic development. In this process, the government has always intervened in the industrial structure through industrial policies and other policy tools. At the same time, the government's public investment behavior also has a profound impact on the industrial structure. In this period, we must not ignore the important role of government's public investment in the adjustment of industrial structure. On the one hand, the adjustment of industrial structure can not be separated from the active participation of government's public investment, on the other hand, if the government ignores the market of industrial structure. The amount of government public investment in China is huge every year. Whether these government public investment has played a role in promoting or hindering the optimization of industrial structure, and how much the impact is, these problems need to be studied in depth. Study.
Firstly, this paper combs the research results of scholars at home and abroad in recent years, analyzes the theoretical basis of public investment and industrial structure, and finds the relevant literature on the impact of government public investment on industrial structure on the basis of the two. Secondly, on the basis of searching for the relevant theories, this paper analyzes the factors affecting government public investment and the impact of government public investment on industrial structure. This paper introduces the development course of public investment and industrial structure from the macroscopic point of view, analyzes the development process and present situation of public investment and industrial structure in China and the course of changes of foreign public investment and industrial structure respectively, and finds out the current government public in China through the comparative analysis of domestic and foreign countries and different periods in China. This paper studies the impact of public investment on the adjustment of industrial structure by econometric method, and the empirical part mainly uses cointegration analysis, error correction model, impulse response function and variance decomposition econometric analysis tools to analyze the relationship between public investment and macroeconomic structure. Short-term and long-term empirical studies show that government public investment has different effects on different industries, some of which are more obvious in the short term and some are more obvious in the long term.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124
本文编号：2232780
[Abstract]:At present, China is in the period of industrial restructuring and industrial optimization, and the structural problems existing in China's economic development are still obvious, such as unreasonable growth dynamic structure, unbalanced development between urban and rural areas, weak agricultural foundation, low quality of manufacturing industry, and relatively backward development of service industry. Current economic development. The adjustment and evolution of industrial structure is a process of continuous renewal and substitution of the leading industry and the industrial system with the leading industry as the core. It is a dynamic process of continuous transformation with the different stages of social and economic development. In this process, the government has always intervened in the industrial structure through industrial policies and other policy tools. At the same time, the government's public investment behavior also has a profound impact on the industrial structure. In this period, we must not ignore the important role of government's public investment in the adjustment of industrial structure. On the one hand, the adjustment of industrial structure can not be separated from the active participation of government's public investment, on the other hand, if the government ignores the market of industrial structure. The amount of government public investment in China is huge every year. Whether these government public investment has played a role in promoting or hindering the optimization of industrial structure, and how much the impact is, these problems need to be studied in depth. Study.
Firstly, this paper combs the research results of scholars at home and abroad in recent years, analyzes the theoretical basis of public investment and industrial structure, and finds the relevant literature on the impact of government public investment on industrial structure on the basis of the two. Secondly, on the basis of searching for the relevant theories, this paper analyzes the factors affecting government public investment and the impact of government public investment on industrial structure. This paper introduces the development course of public investment and industrial structure from the macroscopic point of view, analyzes the development process and present situation of public investment and industrial structure in China and the course of changes of foreign public investment and industrial structure respectively, and finds out the current government public in China through the comparative analysis of domestic and foreign countries and different periods in China. This paper studies the impact of public investment on the adjustment of industrial structure by econometric method, and the empirical part mainly uses cointegration analysis, error correction model, impulse response function and variance decomposition econometric analysis tools to analyze the relationship between public investment and macroeconomic structure. Short-term and long-term empirical studies show that government public investment has different effects on different industries, some of which are more obvious in the short term and some are more obvious in the long term.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前6条
1 吕炜;王娟;;中国的经济结构转型缘何难以实现——基于公共投资、经济增长与结构转型关系视角的研究[J];财贸经济;2011年06期
2 纪玉山;吴勇民;;我国产业结构与经济增长关系之协整模型的建立与实现[J];当代经济研究;2006年06期
3 程世勇;李伟群;;地方政府引资偏好与产业结构优化[J];经济问题;2007年11期
4 杨大楷;孙敏;;公共投资与宏观经济结构的实证研究[J];经济问题;2009年04期
5 王燕武;王俊海;;地方政府行为与地区产业结构趋同的理论及实证分析[J];南开经济研究;2009年04期
6 卢洪友;卢盛峰;陈思霞;;政府投资与经济周期波动实证研究——兼论三次产业的政府投资效应[J];山东经济;2010年01期
，本文编号：2232780
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/jingjilunwen/shijiejingjilunwen/2232780.html
