民粹主义、出口多样性与中等收入陷阱—跨国实证研究
发布时间：2018-09-12 11:54
【摘要】：基于近年来拉美国家经济政策民粹化、福利赶超严重、出口多样性不足以及经济增长停滞的现象,伴随着中国进入中等收入国家行列的事实,本文从出口多样性与民粹主义的角度,对经济增长进行了探讨,为我国及其他发展中国家跨越中等收入陷阱提供了新视角。利用以往的文献分析与1995年到2010年跨国的数据进行分析,从理论和实证两方面探讨了出口多样性及民粹主义对经济增长的影响。 本文所讨论的中等收入陷阱,是指发展中国家的人均收入水平处于中等收入国家行列时出现经济增长停滞的一种现象。而民粹主义是指政府忽视财政赤字约束和其他外部条件限制,一味地采取扩张性财政政策,以高福利、高社会保障的方式迎合选民利益的一种经济政策倾向。 理论分析表明：民粹主义政策要求政府增加开支、同时又不能增加税负,导致财政赤字高涨,进而政府采取扩张的货币政策使通货膨胀恶化,为了稳定汇率使外汇储备消耗殆尽直至国际收支严重失衡,引发金融危机；另一方面,出口多样性能通过消除不确定性风险、促进产品生产的技术跃迁及其他方面的影响促进经济增长,因此它的缺失使经济增长受损。这两方面的因素都会导致一个国家经济增长停滞,陷入中等收入陷阱。 实证研究发现：在控制了其他的影响因素后,本文通过固定效应回归、随机效应回归和混合回归的分析比较,验证了本文理论部分所提出的三个理论假说,即民粹主义确实对经济增长有显著的负面影响,出口多样性对于经济增长有个正面的促进作用和民粹主义对于出口多样性有显著的负面影响。 根据我们的研究,本文认为,民粹主义的福利赶超以及出口多样性的不足,成为近来发展中国家陷入中等收入陷阱的一个重要原因。随着民主观点的普及,民粹主义的福利赶超政策将在发展中国家得到推广,伴随着严重的财政赤字和出口多样性的损失,对发展中国家的经济状况造成严重危害。采用与经济发展情况相匹配的、适当的福利制度,鼓励出口、增加一国的出口多样性,这两者或许成为发展中国家跨越中等收入陷阱的一个关键。
[Abstract]:Based on the populist economic policies of Latin American countries in recent years, the severity of welfare catch-up, the lack of export diversity and the stagnation of economic growth, China has been joining the ranks of middle-income countries. From the perspective of export diversity and populism, this paper probes into economic growth, which provides a new perspective for China and other developing countries to cross the middle-income trap. Based on the past literature analysis and transnational data from 1995 to 2010, this paper discusses the impact of export diversity and populism on economic growth from both theoretical and empirical aspects. The middle-income trap discussed in this paper refers to the stagnation of economic growth when the per capita income of developing countries is in the ranks of middle-income countries. Populism is an economic policy tendency that the government ignores the constraints of fiscal deficit and other external conditions and blindly adopts expansionary fiscal policies to cater to the interests of voters by means of high welfare and high social security. The theoretical analysis shows that the populist policy requires the government to increase its expenditure, but at the same time it cannot increase the tax burden, which leads to a high fiscal deficit, and then the government adopts an expansionary monetary policy to make inflation worse. In order to stabilize the exchange rate and drain foreign exchange reserves until the balance of payments is seriously unbalanced, leading to a financial crisis, on the other hand, export diversification can eliminate the risk of uncertainty, Technological transitions and other effects that promote product production promote economic growth, so its absence hurts economic growth. Both factors can cause a country's growth to stagnate and fall into the middle-income trap. The empirical study shows that after controlling for other influencing factors, this paper verifies the three theoretical hypotheses proposed in the theoretical part through the analysis and comparison of fixed effect regression, stochastic effect regression and mixed regression. That is, populism does have a significant negative impact on economic growth, export diversity has a positive impact on economic growth and populism has a significant negative impact on export diversity. According to our research, the populist welfare catch-up and the lack of export diversity have become an important reason for developing countries to fall into the middle-income trap recently. With the popularization of democratic views, populist welfare catch-up policies will be popularized in developing countries, accompanied by serious fiscal deficits and the loss of export diversity, which will seriously harm the economic situation of developing countries. The adoption of appropriate welfare systems, commensurate with economic development, that encourages exports and increases the diversity of a country's exports, may be a key for developing countries to move beyond the middle-income trap.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F746;F113.8
本文编号：2238923
[Abstract]:Based on the populist economic policies of Latin American countries in recent years, the severity of welfare catch-up, the lack of export diversity and the stagnation of economic growth, China has been joining the ranks of middle-income countries. From the perspective of export diversity and populism, this paper probes into economic growth, which provides a new perspective for China and other developing countries to cross the middle-income trap. Based on the past literature analysis and transnational data from 1995 to 2010, this paper discusses the impact of export diversity and populism on economic growth from both theoretical and empirical aspects. The middle-income trap discussed in this paper refers to the stagnation of economic growth when the per capita income of developing countries is in the ranks of middle-income countries. Populism is an economic policy tendency that the government ignores the constraints of fiscal deficit and other external conditions and blindly adopts expansionary fiscal policies to cater to the interests of voters by means of high welfare and high social security. The theoretical analysis shows that the populist policy requires the government to increase its expenditure, but at the same time it cannot increase the tax burden, which leads to a high fiscal deficit, and then the government adopts an expansionary monetary policy to make inflation worse. In order to stabilize the exchange rate and drain foreign exchange reserves until the balance of payments is seriously unbalanced, leading to a financial crisis, on the other hand, export diversification can eliminate the risk of uncertainty, Technological transitions and other effects that promote product production promote economic growth, so its absence hurts economic growth. Both factors can cause a country's growth to stagnate and fall into the middle-income trap. The empirical study shows that after controlling for other influencing factors, this paper verifies the three theoretical hypotheses proposed in the theoretical part through the analysis and comparison of fixed effect regression, stochastic effect regression and mixed regression. That is, populism does have a significant negative impact on economic growth, export diversity has a positive impact on economic growth and populism has a significant negative impact on export diversity. According to our research, the populist welfare catch-up and the lack of export diversity have become an important reason for developing countries to fall into the middle-income trap recently. With the popularization of democratic views, populist welfare catch-up policies will be popularized in developing countries, accompanied by serious fiscal deficits and the loss of export diversity, which will seriously harm the economic situation of developing countries. The adoption of appropriate welfare systems, commensurate with economic development, that encourages exports and increases the diversity of a country's exports, may be a key for developing countries to move beyond the middle-income trap.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F746;F113.8
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