基于拉姆齐模型的低碳技术对经济增长影响机理研究

发布时间：2018-09-14 18:16

【摘要】：新常态下,中国的经济增长,一方面面临着增长速度的放缓,另一方面资源约束与气候问题变得日益紧迫。中国既要保持一定的经济增长速度,又要应对气候变化带来的挑战,在此双重压力下,寻求合理的经济转型路径迫在眉睫。面对碳减排承诺与经济增长的双重约束,低碳技术的研发与有效利用可能将成为在碳排放约束下实现经济增长目标的有效手段。因此,深入探索低碳技术对经济发展的内在影响机理,进而为我国的经济转型提供理论指导,最终促进我国的经济增长。本文首先对低碳技术、低碳经济和经济增长的相关研究进行了梳理与评述;其次,分析了中国经济增长与碳排放的现状与联系,并与发达国家以及世界平均水平进行了对比研究;再次,论述了低碳经济与低碳技术的内涵,对低碳技术进行分类,并据此提出相应的楔形减排方案;复次,基于微观消费行为最优化基础上,结合拉姆齐模型就低碳技术对经济增长的影响机理进行分析。一方面,借助显示性偏好理论,给出在碳减排约束下,低碳技术使得消费贴现率下降的一个经济学解释,然后基于拉姆齐经济增长模型建立了低碳技术通过对消费者行为最优化,促进经济增长的微观基础。另一方面,综合分析给出低碳技术从生产与消费两大路径对经济增长的作用机理;最后,就低碳技术对经济增长的影响给出实证检验,并针对如何发展低碳技术推动经济增长问题提出了相应的政策建议。论文的理论与实证分析结果表明:(1)我国在经济增长放缓与自主碳减排承诺的双重压力下,低碳技术的发展与利用将成为我国未来经济稳增长的决定性因素。(2)低碳经济发展起始阶段,碳减排的硬约束会对经济造成一定的挤出效应,使得经济增长面临暂时的困难。(3)长期来看,低碳技术的发展在解决碳排放问题的同时,一方面对生产的推动效应将战胜挤出效应,另一方面通过影响消费者效用贴现率以及行为选择,对经济产生促进作用。(4)在碳排放约束下,低碳技术相对于一般性的技术,由于其可能带来的对人类行为选择的影响,其对经济产出的促进作用相对更具有可持续性。根据本文的研究结论,笔者在最后针对碳减排约束下,为保持经济稳定增长提出相关政策建议。如逐步从对经济发展高增长的依赖,转为对高经济增长质量的依赖;针对低碳技术所处阶段的不同,采用相应的差异化政策;加大碳减排层面的国际低碳技术合作,同时加强国内低碳技术创新;注重生产性减排的同时,进一步重视消费性减排;加快推进、落实碳税征收相关工作;加快转变政府职能,尽快完善碳排放权市场交易体系,充分发挥市场在低碳经济发展过程中的决定性作用。
[Abstract]:Under the new normal, China's economic growth is facing a slowdown on the one hand, on the other hand, resource constraints and climate problems become increasingly urgent. China has to maintain a certain rate of economic growth, but also to meet the challenges posed by climate change. Under this dual pressure, it is urgent to seek a reasonable path of economic transformation. Faced with the dual constraints of carbon emission reduction commitment and economic growth, the research and development and effective utilization of low-carbon technology may become an effective means to achieve economic growth under carbon emission constraints. Therefore, the internal influence mechanism of low-carbon technology on economic development is deeply explored, which will provide theoretical guidance for China's economic transformation and ultimately promote the economic growth of our country. In this paper, firstly, the research on low-carbon technology, low-carbon economy and economic growth are reviewed and reviewed; secondly, the current situation and relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in China are analyzed. And compared with the developed countries and the world average level. Thirdly, it discusses the connotation of low-carbon economy and low-carbon technology, classifies low-carbon technology, and puts forward the corresponding wedge-shaped emission reduction scheme. Based on the optimization of micro consumption behavior and Ramsey model, the influence mechanism of low carbon technology on economic growth is analyzed. On the one hand, with the aid of the theory of indicative preference, an economic explanation is given that low carbon technology can reduce the discount rate of consumption under the constraint of carbon emission reduction. Then, based on Ramsey's economic growth model, the micro basis of low carbon technology to promote economic growth by optimizing consumer behavior is established. On the other hand, it gives the mechanism of low carbon technology acting on economic growth from production and consumption. Finally, it gives an empirical test on the impact of low carbon technology on economic growth. Some policy suggestions on how to develop low-carbon technology to promote economic growth are put forward. The theoretical and empirical results show that: (1) China is under the dual pressure of economic growth slowdown and independent carbon emission reduction commitment. The development and utilization of low-carbon technology will be the decisive factor of stable economic growth in the future in China. (2) in the initial stage of low-carbon economy development, the hard constraint of carbon emission reduction will cause a certain crowding out effect on the economy. It makes economic growth face temporary difficulties. (3) in the long run, the development of low-carbon technologies will not only solve the problem of carbon emissions, but also, on the one hand, promote production and defeat the crowding out effect. On the other hand, it promotes the economy by influencing consumer utility discount rate and behavior choice. (4) under carbon emission constraint, low carbon technology is relative to general technology, because of its possible impact on human behavior choice. Its contribution to economic output is relatively more sustainable. According to the conclusion of this paper, the author puts forward some policy suggestions to maintain stable economic growth under the constraint of carbon emission reduction. For example, gradually shifting from dependence on high growth in economic development to reliance on high quality of economic growth; adopting corresponding differentiated policies for different stages of low-carbon technologies; and increasing international low-carbon technology cooperation at the level of carbon emission reduction, At the same time, strengthen the domestic low-carbon technology innovation; pay attention to the productive emission reduction, at the same time, pay more attention to the consumption emission reduction; accelerate the implementation of carbon tax collection related work; accelerate the transformation of government functions, and improve the carbon emissions rights market trading system as soon as possible. Give full play to the market in the development of low-carbon economy in the decisive role.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X22;F124

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