澳门与内地的经贸合作对澳门经济影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-10-10 06:58

【摘要】：伴随经济全球化的趋势日益加强,各国各区域之间经济合作越来越紧密,尤其是步入后金融危机以来,加强区域经贸合作交流已逐渐成为区域走向经济复兴和抢占新时期产业经济发展制高点的重要选择。澳门作为我国特别行政区之一,其与内地地区开展经贸合作是澳门经济发展的重要方式之一,是澳门进行产业结构调整、参与市场竞争的主要力量。近几年,澳门在经贸合作方面的投入经费支出不断增长,产出不断增加,经贸环境不断改善,与内地省市的合作交流也越来越紧密,经贸合作对澳门区域经济发展的影响也越来越显著。在此基础上,本研究系统分析澳门与内地的经贸合作对澳门区域经济发展的影响,并提出了一些可操作性的对策。本文的主要内容包括：首先,在梳理国内外学者对经贸合作研究的基础上,从对外贸易、入境游客、经济投资、金融服务和澳粤合作五个方面对大陆和澳门经贸合作的发展现状进行分析,并总结了一系列的经济和贸易合作问题,为后文研究分析提供依据。其次,以1995-2011年的年度数据为样本,分析澳门与内地的经贸合作对澳门区域经济发展的影响。通过平稳性检验、协整性检验、误差修正模型、多元线性回归分析对大陆居民到澳门旅游的消费额度、内地对澳门金融业的投资、内地对澳门的直接投资与澳门对内地项目引进累计总值、澳门与内地贸易总额的关系进行实证检验。结果表明：(1)内地居民到澳门旅游的消费额度能够有效拉动澳门引进内地项目累计总值、澳门与内地贸易总额的增长,影响系数分别为0.093、0.332；(2)内地对澳门金融业的投资对澳门引进内地项目累计总值增长、澳门与内地贸易总额增长的拉动作用不显著,系数分别为0.0454,0.3013；(3)内地对澳门的直接投资对澳门引进内地项目累计总值增长、澳门与内地贸易总额增长的正向拉动显著,系数分别为0.207,0.3437,说明内地对澳门的直接投资能够促进澳门区域经济的发展。再次,选取澳粤两地的经贸合作为案例,对两地之间展开的经贸合作对澳门经济发展的影响进行深入分析,总结澳粤经贸合作促进澳门经济发展的经验。最后,从加强对澳门与内地经贸合作的引导与扶持、拓宽融资渠道、完善经贸合作环境、加强澳粤之间合作四个方面提出具有可操作性的对策建议。
[Abstract]:With the increasing trend of economic globalization, economic cooperation between countries and regions is becoming closer and closer, especially since the post-financial crisis. Strengthening regional economic and trade cooperation and exchange has gradually become an important choice for the region to move towards economic revival and seize the commanding heights of industrial economic development in the new period. As one of the special administrative regions of China, Macao's economic and trade cooperation with the mainland is one of the important ways of Macao's economic development, and is the main force for Macao to adjust its industrial structure and participate in market competition. In recent years, Macao's investment and expenditure in economic and trade cooperation have been increasing, its output has been increasing, the economic and trade environment has been constantly improving, and cooperation and exchanges with provinces and cities in the mainland have become more and more close. The impact of economic and trade cooperation on Macao's regional economic development is becoming more and more significant. On this basis, this study systematically analyzes the impact of economic and trade cooperation between Macao and the mainland on the development of Macao's regional economy, and puts forward some operable countermeasures. The main contents of this paper are as follows: first, on the basis of combing the research of domestic and foreign scholars on economic and trade cooperation, from foreign trade, inbound tourists, economic investment, This paper analyzes the current situation of economic and trade cooperation between mainland China and Macao from five aspects of financial services and cooperation between Macao and Guangdong, and summarizes a series of economic and trade cooperation issues, which provide the basis for further studies and analysis. Secondly, based on the annual data from 1995 to 2011, the paper analyzes the impact of economic and trade cooperation between Macao and the mainland on Macao's regional economic development. Through the stability test, cointegration test, error correction model, multivariate linear regression analysis, the amount of mainland residents traveling to Macao, the mainland's investment in Macao's financial sector, The relationship between the direct investment in Macao from the mainland and the cumulative value of the projects introduced into the mainland by Macao and the total trade volume between Macao and the mainland is tested empirically. The results are as follows: (1) the consumption quota of mainland residents visiting Macao can effectively promote the cumulative value of Macao's import projects, and the influence coefficient of the total trade between Macao and the mainland is 0.093 ~ 0.332 respectively; (2) the total value of the mainland's investment in the financial sector of Macao to the total value of the projects introduced into the mainland in Macao has increased, but the total trade between Macao and the mainland has no significant pulling effect, with a coefficient of 0.0454 or 0.3013; (3) the cumulative total value of direct investment from the mainland to Macao for the introduction of mainland projects to Macao has increased, and the increase in the total volume of trade between Macao and the mainland has been significantly positive. The coefficients are 0.207 and 0.3437 respectively, indicating that the direct investment from the mainland to Macao can promote the development of Macao regional economy. Thirdly, the economic and trade cooperation between Macao and Guangdong is selected as a case, and the impact of economic and trade cooperation between the two places on Macao's economic development is analyzed in depth, and the experience of Macao's economic and trade cooperation is summarized. Finally, the paper puts forward some feasible countermeasures from four aspects: strengthening the guidance and support of Macao and mainland economic and trade cooperation, widening financing channels, perfecting the environment of economic and trade cooperation, and strengthening the cooperation between Macao and Guangdong.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F727;F127

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