河北省经济增长与三大需求的关系研究

发布时间：2018-10-14 20:47

【摘要】：投资、消费、净出口与经济增长的关系是宏观经济学一个最基本也是最重要的问题。三者规模和结构是否合理，会影响到一个国家或地区经济的各个方面，从长期上来说，会影响到经济增长和发展的稳定性、长期性。所以，各宏观经济主体都十分重视本经济体投资、消费、净出口的状况，通过制定一些指标去反映它们各自的规模、结构，以研究与本地区经济发展相协调的投资、消费、净出口的规模与结构的合理性。河北省投资、消费和出口的规模和结构是否合理，必然影响河北省经济的增长和发展，，因而，对其研究具有现实意义。基于此，本文首先利用一些指标测度了现阶段河北省三大需求对经济增长的作用，得到了河北省三大需求比率、三大需求贡献率和拉动度，其分析结果是在河北省GDP中，投资率影响最大，依次是消费率和净流出率，但是从贡献度来说消费需求贡献度和拉动度却稍微高于投资需求；然后，用协整分析法和误差修正模型证实了三大需求与经济增长之间的长期均衡和短期动态关系，得出无论长期还是短期在河北省的经济增长中，消费需求的带动作用都是最强的；为了深入研究，本文采用主成分回归法重点分析了消费需求结构和对外需求结构与经济增长的关系；最后，基于分析结论，针对相关问题提出了一些对策建议。
[Abstract]:The relationship between investment, consumption, net export and economic growth is one of the most basic and important issues in macroeconomics. Whether the scale and structure of the three factors are reasonable will affect all aspects of the economy of a country or region. In the long run, it will affect the stability and long-term nature of economic growth and development. Therefore, all macroeconomic entities attach great importance to the situation of investment, consumption, and net exports of their own economies. By formulating some indicators to reflect their respective size and structure, they will study investment and consumption that are in harmony with the economic development of the region. The rationality of the scale and structure of net exports. Whether the scale and structure of investment, consumption and export of Hebei Province is reasonable or not will inevitably affect the economic growth and development of Hebei Province, so it is of practical significance to study the investment, consumption and export of Hebei Province. Based on this, this paper first uses some indicators to measure the effect of the three major demand on the economic growth in Hebei Province at present, and obtains the three demand ratio, the three demand contribution rate and the pull degree of Hebei Province. The result of the analysis is in the Hebei Province GDP. The investment rate is the most important, which is followed by consumption rate and net outflow rate, but the contribution and pull degree of consumer demand is slightly higher than that of investment demand in terms of contribution. Cointegration analysis and error correction model are used to confirm the long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic relationship between the three major demand and economic growth. It is concluded that consumption demand is the strongest driving force in the economic growth of Hebei Province in both the long and short term. In order to further study the relationship between the structure of consumption demand and the structure of external demand and economic growth, the principal component regression method is used to analyze the relationship between the structure of consumption demand and the structure of external demand. Finally, based on the conclusion of the analysis, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to solve the related problems.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127

【参考文献】