基于后发优势的中国追赶战略研究

发布时间：2018-10-15 14:58

【摘要】：世界各国经济发展的历程表现出泾渭分明的苦乐不均。大多数发展中国家或者在“贫困陷阱”面前艰难挣扎,或者在“中等收入陷阱”面前踯躅不前,而形成鲜明对照的是,世界经济史上总有个别“成绩优异”的国家能够逆势而上,不仅成功经济追赶的时间比先发国家要短,而且在追赶的过程中本身也进入持续增长的良性循环。自凡勃伦和格申克龙等学者做出开创性研究以来,后发优势就是一国追赶战略的重要理论支撑。本文即以后发优势理论为视角,研究中国经济增长及对发达国家的经济追赶。与当前大多数研究不同的是,本文跳出了后进国家技术追赶或FDI溢出效应等单一视界,而将发展中国家的结构后发优势、人力后发优势、技术后发优势、资本后发优势和制度后发优势作为一个整体。本文也关注各种后发优势的阶段性变化特征,并在后发优势的理论框架下梳理和解释中国经济发展和体制改革的变迁过程。本文的基本观点是,正是这五种后发优势的协同作用,中国才得以实现持续、快速的追赶绩效。后发优势的核心理念是学习,这在中国领导人的经济建设方针中不断体现和强调。作为研究的起点,本文首先对中国经济追赶的结构性变化和增长动力进行经验分析。以1992年、1997年为节点,我们可以将改革开放以后的中国经济追赶划分为三个阶段,追赶能力呈现依次加强的趋势。增长动力的经验分析表明,资本积累、人力资源、结构转变、技术进步和制度变迁对中国改革开放以后的经济增长具有很强的解释力。我们判断,中国经济增长之所以出现持续追赶的趋势,正是因为在资本积累、人力资源、结构转变、技术进步和制度变迁方面具有相比成熟经济体而言的优势地位,由此引出资本后发优势、人力后发优势、结构后发优势、技术后发优势和制度后发优势的理念。结构后发优势表现在,发展中国家相对于发达国家而言具有更大的结构转变空间,生产要素向高生产率部门的再配置可以为经济增长带来额外的收益。工业化推动下的结构转变过程是中国比发达国家经济增长更快的重要推动力。我们将中国发挥结构后发优势的过程划分为五个阶段,其中结构转变对生产率提高的贡献在1978-1986、1992-1997和2003-2012年三个阶段里较高。在经历90年代末城市国有部门战略调整带来的阵痛期以后,结构后发优势为新千年以来的快速经济增长提供了有力支撑。人力后发优势的基础是劳动力资源丰富和劳动力成本低廉,另一方面也在于发达国家具有知识的溢出效应,发展中国家对教育和人力资本的投资可以获得比发达国家更高的收益。中国利用人力后发优势最显著的成效就是出口贸易总量不断扩大,并且逐步成为全世界的制造工厂。中国加入WTO以后,人力后发优势得到更大程度的释放。技术后发优势主要是指,发展中国家只需要付出极小的代价就可以引进外来科学技术运用于本国的生产活动,缩小与国际技术前沿的差距。我们将改革开放以来中国发挥技术后发优势的历程分为三个阶段：在80年代前期和中期,中国技术发展路线是对计划经济时期的矫正和在开放环境下对发挥技术后发优势的摸索；从80年代末到90年代,中国技术发展是以引进和模仿外来技术为主；从90年代末开始,中国加快了从模仿到创新的技术追赶路线转变的步伐。资本后发优势的理论基础是资本报酬递减的规律,这样,发展中国家的资本回报率更高,国际资本将流向发展中国家并促进后者的经济增长。与发达国家相比,发展中国家往往拥有更高的投资率,这部分是因为发展中国家在起飞阶段经常会采取国有化和强制性的资本积累方式,高投资率的背后可能是低下的生产效率和投资回报。从相关文献的研究结论可以判断,至少从90年代末开始,随着国有企业改革的深入,中国的高投资现象和外商资本的不断涌入是具有高投资回报率的微观基础的。我们利用省际面板数据也发现,以1997年为分水岭,中国资本积累的模式出现明显差异,资本积累的替代性制度安排逐渐正让位于稳健性制度安排。制度后发优势是指,发展中国家可以学习、模仿和借鉴发达国家的先进制度和管理经验,由此避免先发国家有效制度形成所需要付出的不断试错的高昂代价,从而节约经济发展的时间成本和创新空间。为了达到追赶绩效最优化的目标,发展中国家在不同的发展阶段应该采取不同的发展政策。早期有利于落后国家经济追赶的替代性制度安排到了发展的后期就不再适宜,政府必须适时考虑将替代性制度转向稳健型制度,也就是以市场竞争为基础的和以创新活动为主要形式的追赶政策,否则将陷入一个非收敛的均衡陷阱。本文在制度后发优势的框架下解释90年代末国企改革的逻辑,制度变迁的整体性和关联性在这一转变中起到重要作用。本文在五种后发优势的基础上提出系统性后发优势战略的理念,发展中国家的任务就是要设计出一套机制,使结构后发优势、人力后发优势、技术后发优势、资本后发优势和制度后发优势的发挥纳入到与经济追赶良性互动的循环体系内。本文将中国借用后发优势的追赶战略实践分为三个阶段：准备期、调整期和巩固期。以90年代末和新千年初为转折点,中国经过国企战略调整和加入WTO,后发优势战略步入巩固期。本文也对中国经济追赶中各种后发优势的贡献进行了经验分析,在90年代末以来,结构后发优势、人力后发优势和教育的人力资本后发优势发挥了最显著的作用。本文最后详细比较了基于后发优势的追赶战略与赶超战略以及比较优势战略的区别,并对中国经济发展方式转变和进一步深化改革提出了建议。
[Abstract]:The history of the economic development of the countries in the world shows that the world's economic development is uneven. Most developing countries or in Poverty Trap To struggle in front of, or in front of "Medium Income Trap" in contrast, that history of the world's economic history is that there is an individual difference in the history of the world. "Excellent results" The country is able to reverse the potential, not only the time of successful economic catch-up is shorter than that of the first country, but also in the process of catching up, it also enters a virtuous circle of sustained growth. Since the pioneering research by the scholars such as Van Buren and Gershenko, the advantage of post-development is the important theoretical support of the country's catch-up strategy. This paper is to study the economic growth of China and the economic pursuit of the developed countries from the perspective of the back-up advantage theory. Unlike most of the current research, this paper points out the single horizon, such as the post-entry national technical catch-up or FDI spillover effect, and takes advantage of the structure of developing countries, post-manpower advantage, post-technology advantage, post-capital advantage and post-system advantage as a whole. In this paper, we also pay attention to the characteristics of the changes of the post-hair advantage, and then, under the theoretical framework of the advantage of post-hair, comb and explain the process of the change of China's economic development and institutional reform. The basic point of this paper is that it is the synergy of these five advantages, so that China can achieve sustained and rapid catch-up performance. The core idea of post-hair advantage is study, which is embodied in the course of economic construction of Chinese leaders. As a starting point for research, this paper first experiences the structural changes and growth dynamics of China's economic catch-up. Analysis. In 1992, 1997 as the node, we can divide China's economic catch up into three stages after the reform and opening-up, and the catch-up ability will be strengthened in turn The empirical analysis of growth dynamics shows that capital accumulation, human resources, structural transformation, technological progress and institutional change have a strong solution to the economic growth of China after the reform and opening up We judge that the trend of sustained catch-up of China's economic growth is because of the advantages of the mature economy in capital accumulation, human resources, structural transformation, technological progress and institutional change, thus leading to the advantage of post-capital and after manpower. Advantages, post-structure advantages, post-technical advantages and post-system advantages The post-structural advantages of the structure show that the developing countries have more structural transformation space relative to the developed countries, and the re-allocation of production factors to the high-productivity sectors can bring about economic growth Additional benefits. The process of structural transformation driven by industrialization is faster than the economic growth of developed countries It is an important driving force. We divide China into five stages, including the contribution of structural transformation to productivity enhancement in 1978-1986, 1992-1997 and 2003-2012. The stage is high. After the battle period brought by the strategic adjustment of the state-owned sector in the late 1990s, the post-structure advantage has been provided by the rapid economic growth since the new millennium. Strong support is provided. The foundation of human back-up is that the labor resource is abundant and the labor cost is low, and on the other hand, the developed countries have the spillover effect of knowledge, and the investment of developing countries to education and human capital can achieve a better ratio. The most remarkable effect of China's utilization of manpower is the expansion of total export trade, and gradually become the most remarkable result of China's utilization of human resources The world's manufacturing plants. After China's entry into the WTO, it has the advantage of manpower To a greater extent, the post-technical advantage mainly refers to the fact that the developing countries can introduce external science and technology to the production activities of their own countries at a very small price, In the early and middle of the 1980s, China's technical development route is the correction of the planned economy period and the exploration for exerting the advantage in the open environment in the early and middle of the 80 's. From the late 1980s to the 1990s, China's technological development was mainly based on the introduction and imitation of foreign technology; from the end of the 1990s, China has accelerated its development from imitation to innovation The pace of the change of technology catch-up route. The theoretical basis of capital post-growth advantage is the law of diminishing returns of capital, so the return of capital in developing countries is higher, and international capital flows to the developing countries. Countries in developing countries and promoting the latter's economic growth. Developing countries tend to have higher investment rates than developed countries, partly because developing countries often take nationalisation and mandatory capital accumulation at the take-off stage, behind high investment rates Can be a low production efficiency and investment return. From the research conclusion of the relevant literature, it can be judged that at least since the late 1990s, with the reform of state-owned enterprises, China's high investment and the constant influx of foreign capital are Based on the micro-foundation of high return on investment, we also found that in 1997 as the watershed, China's capital accumulation model had obvious difference and the alternative system of capital accumulation was found. As a result, developing countries can learn, imitate and learn from the advanced system and management experience of developed countries, thus avoiding the high cost of developing a country's effective system to form the constant trial and error that needs to be paid, and from In order to achieve the goal of optimizing pursuit performance, developing countries do not Different development policies should be adopted at the same stage of development. The alternative system which is favorable for the backward country's economic pursuit is no longer appropriate in the late stage of the development, and the government must consider changing the alternative system to a robust system in due time, i.e. the market competition is the basis. ..catch-up with innovative activities as the main form. Otherwise, we will fall into a non-convergent equilibrium trap. In the framework of post-system advantage, this paper explains the logic and institutional changes of state-owned enterprises reform at the end of 1990s. It plays an important role in this transformation. Based on the five advantages, this paper puts forward the idea of systematic post-service advantage strategy, and the task of developing countries is to design a set of mechanisms. Post-structure advantage, post-manpower advantage, post-technical advantage, post-capital advantage and post-system advantage. In this paper, we introduce China's catch-up strategy for the advantage of post-borrowing. The practice is divided into three stages: period, adjustment period and consolidation period. At the end of 1990s and the beginning of the new millennium, China passed the strategy of state-owned enterprises After adjustment and entry into WTO, the strategy of post-development advantage is stepped into the consolidation period. This paper also analyses the contribution of China's economic catch-up in China's economic catch-up. It has advantages of post-structure and post-manpower advantage since the late 1990' s. This paper gives a detailed comparison of the difference between the strategy of chasing strategy and the strategy of catching up and catching up and the strategy of comparative advantage based on the advantage of the latter.
【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124

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