中国—东亚经济周期同步性及其传导机制研究
发布时间：2018-10-26 18:21
【摘要】：本文采用1992-2012年中国与东亚12国的样本数据,通过建立联立方程模型,运用三阶段最小二乘法,分析了国际贸易、专业化分工、金融一体化程度和政策协调度等因素对中国与东亚各国经济周期同步性的影响,并从中勾勒出国际贸易、产业结构和金融发展之间通过相互影响进而传导至经济周期同步性这一间接机制。结果表明:就中国—东亚层面而言,贸易一体化对中国与东亚经济体的经济周期同步性无显著的直接影响,金融一体化程度对中国与东亚经济体的经济周期同步性有直接的推动作用,而产业结构相似度(专业化分工)会直接减弱中国与东亚各国的经济周期同步性。
[Abstract]:Based on the sample data of China and 12 countries in East Asia from 1992 to 2012, this paper analyzes international trade and specialization by establishing a simultaneous equation model and using the three-stage least square method. The influence of the degree of financial integration and policy coordination on the synchronism of economic cycle between China and East Asian countries, and the outline of international trade. The indirect mechanism between industrial structure and financial development is transmitted to the synchronism of economic cycle through mutual influence. The results show that trade integration has no significant direct effect on the synchronism of economic cycles between China and East Asian economies in terms of China-East Asia level. The degree of financial integration directly promotes the synchronism of economic cycle between China and East Asian economies, while the industrial structure similarity (specialization division of labor) directly weakens the synchronism of economic cycle between China and East Asian countries.
【作者单位】： 中南财经政法大学工商管理学院、国际商务研究所;
【分类号】：F124;F131
[Abstract]:Based on the sample data of China and 12 countries in East Asia from 1992 to 2012, this paper analyzes international trade and specialization by establishing a simultaneous equation model and using the three-stage least square method. The influence of the degree of financial integration and policy coordination on the synchronism of economic cycle between China and East Asian countries, and the outline of international trade. The indirect mechanism between industrial structure and financial development is transmitted to the synchronism of economic cycle through mutual influence. The results show that trade integration has no significant direct effect on the synchronism of economic cycles between China and East Asian economies in terms of China-East Asia level. The degree of financial integration directly promotes the synchronism of economic cycle between China and East Asian economies, while the industrial structure similarity (specialization division of labor) directly weakens the synchronism of economic cycle between China and East Asian countries.
【作者单位】： 中南财经政法大学工商管理学院、国际商务研究所;
【分类号】：F124;F131
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