房价上升如何影响我国城镇居民消费倾向——基于两阶段家庭最优消费模型的研究
发布时间：2018-11-02 10:34
【摘要】：本文基于一个内含购房决策的两阶段家庭最优消费模型,首次将房价上升对居民消费倾向影响的财富效应、流动性约束效应和替代效应综合在统一的理论框架内。通过推导代表性家庭的购房时间和在租房和自有房两个阶段的最优消费路径并进行数值模拟,我们发现房价上升时租房家庭因推迟购房而增加当期消费,自有房家庭则因住房收益的增加而增加当期消费。基于国家统计局住户调查数据的实证研究进一步证明,房价上升总体上导致我国城镇居民消费倾向上升。本文最后提出了谨慎抑制房价并通过发展质量优良的公租房提升居民居住满意度和幸福感的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Based on a two-stage family optimal consumption model, this paper integrates the wealth effect, liquidity constraint effect and substitution effect of the rising house price on the residents' consumption tendency in a unified theoretical framework for the first time. By deducing the time of purchase and the optimal consumption path in the two stages of rental and owner-house, we find that when the house price rises, the rental family increases the consumption of the current period because of the delay of buying a house. Home-owned families as a result of the increase in housing income and increased current consumption. The empirical study based on the household survey data of the National Bureau of Statistics further proves that the rise of house prices generally leads to an increase in the propensity of urban residents to consume in China. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to restrain house price carefully and improve residents' living satisfaction and happiness through the development of high quality public rental housing.
【作者单位】： 复旦大学公共经济研究中心;招商银行上海分行;
【基金】：国家社科基金一般项目“房价上升对我国居民消费倾向的影响及公共政策的作用研究”(编号11BJK020)和国家社科基金重大项目“中国特色公共经济理论与政策研究”(编号11&ZD079)
【分类号】：F126.1;F299.23
[Abstract]:Based on a two-stage family optimal consumption model, this paper integrates the wealth effect, liquidity constraint effect and substitution effect of the rising house price on the residents' consumption tendency in a unified theoretical framework for the first time. By deducing the time of purchase and the optimal consumption path in the two stages of rental and owner-house, we find that when the house price rises, the rental family increases the consumption of the current period because of the delay of buying a house. Home-owned families as a result of the increase in housing income and increased current consumption. The empirical study based on the household survey data of the National Bureau of Statistics further proves that the rise of house prices generally leads to an increase in the propensity of urban residents to consume in China. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to restrain house price carefully and improve residents' living satisfaction and happiness through the development of high quality public rental housing.
【作者单位】： 复旦大学公共经济研究中心;招商银行上海分行;
【基金】：国家社科基金一般项目“房价上升对我国居民消费倾向的影响及公共政策的作用研究”(编号11BJK020)和国家社科基金重大项目“中国特色公共经济理论与政策研究”(编号11&ZD079)
【分类号】：F126.1;F299.23
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