能源—环境—就业三重约束下的京津冀产业结构优化

发布时间：2018-11-15 11:04

【摘要】：区域的产业结构优化是人文—经济地理学的经典问题,也是政府宏观调控经济与资源环境协调发展的重要抓手,更是经济新常态下中国新型城镇化面临的现实问题。以京津冀城市群为案例区,采用投入产出分析,构建能源—环境—就业三重约束下的线性规划模型,纳入产业间要素流动,系统分析京津冀地区的产业结构整体优度及优化路径。研究表明:(1)在能源约束情景与综合约束情景下,天津市和河北省的能源约束相对于环境约束和就业约束更加严格。(2)在就业约束情景方案中,北京产业结构优化的方向为高端服务业,天津市应主要发展现代工业,河北省则应聚焦于发展现代工业和传统服务业。(3)在环境约束情景方案中,三地产业结构的调整应立足于降低高污染高排放的产业。(4)综合考虑以上约束条件的情景模拟,京津冀三地应根据各地经济发展优势,统筹目前各地的产业发展目标。北京应重点发展高端服务业、高新技术产业,同时转移不适宜本地发展的第一、第二产业;天津应坚持第二、第三产业并重,寻求自身优势产业;河北应改善高污染、高能耗的传统工业,完善配套的生产性服务业。
[Abstract]:The optimization of regional industrial structure is a classic problem of humanity-economic geography, an important grasp of the coordinated development of the government's macro-control economy and resources and environment, and a practical problem facing China's new urbanization under the new economic normal. Taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as a case study, a linear programming model under the triple constraints of energy, environment and employment is constructed by using input-output analysis to incorporate the flow of inter-industry elements. Systematic analysis of the overall industrial structure of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the optimization of the optimal path. The results show that: (1) the energy constraints in Tianjin and Hebei are more strict than those in the environment and employment under the energy constraint scenario and the comprehensive constraint scenario. (2) in the employment constraint scenario, The direction of industrial structure optimization in Beijing is high-end service industry, Tianjin should mainly develop modern industry, Hebei Province should focus on developing modern industry and traditional service industry. The adjustment of the structure of the real estate industry should be based on the industries with high pollution and high emission. (4) considering the scenario simulation of the above constraints, the three places of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei should coordinate the industrial development goals of each region according to the advantages of local economic development. Beijing should focus on the development of high-end service industry, high-tech industry, and transfer of the first and second industries that are not suitable for local development, while Tianjin should insist on the equal emphasis of the second and third industries and seek its own superior industries. Hebei should improve the traditional industry of high pollution and high energy consumption and perfect the supporting producer service industry.
【作者单位】：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;中国西南地缘环境与边疆发展协同创新中心;英国利物浦大学大学地理与规划学院;云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41530634,41430636,41671125) 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所“秉维”优秀青年人才基金(2015RC202)
【分类号】：F127

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