贸易开放、贸易市场多样化与经济波动——基于中国省级面板数据的实证分析
发布时间：2018-11-16 20:44
【摘要】：本文使用中国省级层面的面板数据,考察了贸易开放对中国经济波动的影响。研究结果显示:贸易开放所产生的外部风险显著增加了经济波动,而贸易开放减少了经济波动,其中出口贸易对经济波动的影响显著为负,而进口贸易对经济波动的影响为负但不显著;贸易开放通过进出口市场多样化减少了经济波动,而且进出口市场多样化对经济波动的负向影响是U型的,并且U型表现出较强的稳健性。本文的研究结果表明贸易开放所引致的外部风险破坏了经济稳定,而贸易市场多样化对保持经济增长的稳定性发挥了重要作用。
[Abstract]:Using panel data at provincial level in China, this paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on China's economic volatility. The results show that the external risks caused by trade liberalization significantly increase economic volatility, while trade liberalization reduces economic volatility, in which export trade has a significant negative impact on economic volatility. The influence of import trade on economic fluctuation is negative but not significant. Trade opening reduces the economic fluctuation through the diversification of import and export market, and the negative influence of the diversification of import and export market on economic fluctuation is U-shaped, and U-type shows strong robustness. The results show that the external risks caused by open trade destroy the economic stability, and the diversification of trade market plays an important role in maintaining the stability of economic growth.
【作者单位】： 对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国新一轮对外开放的战略布局、主要目标与政策选择研究”(11&ZD007)
【分类号】：F124.8;F752
，
本文编号：2336593
[Abstract]:Using panel data at provincial level in China, this paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on China's economic volatility. The results show that the external risks caused by trade liberalization significantly increase economic volatility, while trade liberalization reduces economic volatility, in which export trade has a significant negative impact on economic volatility. The influence of import trade on economic fluctuation is negative but not significant. Trade opening reduces the economic fluctuation through the diversification of import and export market, and the negative influence of the diversification of import and export market on economic fluctuation is U-shaped, and U-type shows strong robustness. The results show that the external risks caused by open trade destroy the economic stability, and the diversification of trade market plays an important role in maintaining the stability of economic growth.
【作者单位】： 对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国新一轮对外开放的战略布局、主要目标与政策选择研究”(11&ZD007)
【分类号】：F124.8;F752
，
本文编号：2336593
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