基于系统动力学的北京市社会经济协同发展建模与仿真

发布时间：2018-11-19 15:30

【摘要】：北京作为我国首都、“十三五”规划核心战略城市,中央对北京的社会经济发展给予了厚望。但随着北京在各方面取得了辉煌的成就同时,社会、经济、资源、环境同时也暴露出了不协调的局面,一些大城市病症,如人口拥挤、城市污染、雾霾等问题相继成为焦点,挚肘着北京经济发展与社会和谐。为研究和改善北京市社会经济发展状况,本文基于系统动力学原理和方法,调研大量北京现状数据,利用Anylogic软件构建北京社会子系统、经济子系统、资源子系统、环境子系统这四大系统相互关联、协同发展的仿真模型。先利用2012年至2015年的历史数据进行仿真验证,结果表明仿真数据误差在10%以内,模型可行。并以此来对北京市未来四年(2016年至2019年)的社会经济发展情况进行模拟仿真。结合“十三五”规划的相关指标,分别仿真了无控制措施下的北京社会经济发展状况,以及有功能疏解、控制措施下的社会经济发展情况。结果表明:四年后,在有控制措施情况下,社会人口、GDP、资源消耗、水耗等基本都符合“十三五”规划的总体要求。为促进社会经济协同发展,本文强调必须采取一系列的功能疏解以及控制措施:将人口控制、企业外迁、功能疏解、能耗控制、三废治理、严控排放等,使得北京走向绿色和谐发展的道路。本文总共分为六章节:第一章是绪论,交代了本文研究背景、意义、国内外文献综述等;第二章是北京市的社会经济现状同时也是本文的数据来源;第三章是本文核心的建模理论方法与基于系统动力学的模型构建;第四章通过运行结果针对模型的可行性做验证和误差分析;第五章是对北京未来的社会经济做仿真预测分析以及控制措施具体阐述;最后,第六章是对论文的总结和模型的不足分析以及展望。
[Abstract]:Beijing as the capital of China, the 13th Five-Year Plan core strategic city, the central government gives great hope to the social and economic development of Beijing. However, as Beijing has made brilliant achievements in various fields, at the same time, the society, economy, resources and environment have also exposed an incongruous situation. Some major urban diseases, such as population congestion, urban pollution, haze and so on, have become the focus one after another. Beijing's economic development and social harmony are seriously hindered. In order to study and improve the social and economic development of Beijing, based on the principles and methods of system dynamics, this paper investigates a large number of Beijing status data, using Anylogic software to build Beijing social subsystem, economic subsystem, resource subsystem. The simulation model of the four systems related to each other and cooperating with each other. The simulation results show that the error of the simulation data is less than 10%, and the model is feasible. The social and economic development of Beijing in the next four years (2016-2019) is simulated and simulated. Combined with the related indexes of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the social and economic development of Beijing under uncontrolled measures, as well as the situation of social and economic development with function and control measures, are simulated respectively. The results show that, four years later, the social population, GDP, resource consumption and water consumption basically meet the general requirements of the 13th Five-Year Plan. In order to promote the coordinated development of society and economy, this paper emphasizes that we must take a series of functions and control measures: population control, enterprise emigration, functional decontamination, energy consumption control, three waste control, strict control of emissions, etc. Make Beijing walk toward green harmonious development road. This paper is divided into six chapters: the first chapter is the introduction, which explains the research background, significance, literature review at home and abroad, the second chapter is the social and economic status of Beijing, and is also the data source of this paper. The third chapter is the core of this paper modeling theory and modeling method based on system dynamics, the fourth chapter through the results of the operation to verify the feasibility of the model and error analysis; The fifth chapter is to make the simulation forecast analysis and the control measure to Beijing's future social economy; finally, the sixth chapter is the summary of the thesis and the model insufficiency analysis and the prospect.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127

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