河南省居民收入、收入差距与消费关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-11-21 18:24

【摘要】：消费、投资和净出口被认为是拉动经济增长的三驾马车。然而随着2008年金融危机的逐步蔓延,我国出口遭到了严重的打击,净出口对GDP的贡献率出现了负值。同时,我国过度依赖投资的现状一直没有得到改变。河南省也存在同样的问题,根据河南省统计局的相关数据,2012年净出口对河南省GDP的贡献率为-66.73%,而投资对GDP的贡献率为108.44%,远远高于消费的58.29%,这反映出河南省出口受阻、过度倚重投资与内需疲软的现状。因此,在出口环境无法改善、投资边际贡献越来越小的情况下,刺激内需、扩大消费便成为推动河南省经济发展的主要力量。由于居民消费在最终消费中的比例非常大,那么刺激居民消费将成为重中之重。根据传统经济学相关理论,收入是影响消费的重要因素,消费随着收入的增加而增加,随着收入差距的扩大而减少。因此,正确认识河南省居民收入、收入差距与消费的关系将有助于对症下药,促进河南省经济的良好发展。本文以河南省居民收入、收入差距与消费为研究对象,基于绝对收入模型与相对收入模型,利用河南省1978-2012年的相关时间序列数据与2002-2012年的相关面板数据,首先分析了河南省居民收入与消费的关系,并且进一步研究了不同来源收入的边际消费倾向。其次,本文通过分析不同收入阶层居民的边际消费倾向从侧面研究了收入差距对消费的影响,同时利用基尼系数、城乡居民收入比与平均消费倾向的关系从正面探究了收入差距对居民消费的具体影响。通过研究,本文发现：第一,河南省居民收入与消费存在长期均衡的协整关系,收入是消费的格兰杰原因。第二,不同来源收入的边际消费倾向不同,其中财产性收入与转移性收入的边际消费倾向最高,说明提高这两项收入更有助于增加消费。第三,不同阶层居民收入水平与边际消费倾向呈现负相关关系,因此提高低收入阶层居民收入有助于刺激消费。第四,收入差距的扩大将会导致居民消费支出的下降。据此,本文提出了提高居民收入水平、完善收入分配制度、发挥财政与税收对收入分配的调节作用与完善社会保障制度等政策建议。
[Abstract]:Consumption, investment and net exports are considered the troika that drives economic growth. However, with the gradual spread of the financial crisis in 2008, China's exports suffered a serious blow, and the contribution rate of net exports to GDP was negative. At the same time, China's over-reliance on investment has not been changed. The same problem exists in Henan Province. According to the relevant data from the Henan Bureau of Statistics, the contribution rate of net exports to Henan's GDP in 2012 was -66.73, while the contribution rate of investment to GDP was 108.44, much higher than the 58.29 percent of consumption. This reflects the current situation of Henan Province's exports being blocked, over-reliant on investment and weak domestic demand. Therefore, when the export environment can not be improved and the marginal contribution of investment is getting smaller and smaller, stimulating domestic demand and expanding consumption will become the main force to promote the economic development of Henan Province. As the proportion of resident consumption in the final consumption is very large, stimulating resident consumption will become the top priority. According to the related theories of traditional economics, income is an important factor affecting consumption. Consumption increases with the increase of income and decreases with the expansion of income gap. Therefore, a correct understanding of the relationship between income, income gap and consumption in Henan Province will be helpful to the right remedy and promote the good economic development of Henan Province. Based on the absolute income model and the relative income model, this paper makes use of the relevant time series data from 1978 to 2012 and the relevant panel data from 2002 to 2012. This paper first analyzes the relationship between income and consumption in Henan Province, and further studies the marginal consumption tendency of income from different sources. Secondly, this paper studies the influence of income gap on consumption by analyzing the marginal consumption tendency of residents of different income classes, and makes use of Gini coefficient at the same time. The relationship between the income ratio of urban and rural residents and the average propensity to consume explores the concrete influence of income gap on residents' consumption. First, there is a long-term equilibrium cointegration relationship between income and consumption in Henan Province, and income is the Granger cause of consumption. Second, the marginal propensity to consume is different among different sources of income, among which property income and transfer income have the highest marginal propensity to consume, which indicates that increasing these two incomes is more helpful to increase consumption. Third, there is a negative correlation between income level and marginal propensity to consume in different strata, so increasing income of low-income class is helpful to stimulate consumption. Fourth, the widening income gap will lead to a decline in consumer spending. On the basis of this, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions such as improving the income level of residents, perfecting the income distribution system, exerting the regulating function of finance and tax on income distribution and perfecting the social security system.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.7;F126

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