中部崛起战略实施效果评价
发布时间:2018-11-23 15:18
【摘要】:为了缩小发展差距,加快中部地区发展步伐,中国于2006年出台了《中共中央国务院关于促进中部地区崛起的若干意见》。迄今为止,中部崛起战略已经正式实施了十周年。与此同时,随着我国进入三期叠加的经济新常态阶段以及“一带一路”建设、京津冀协同发展、长江经济带三大战略的提出既为中部地区提供了新的发展空间,也对新时期中部地区实现全面崛起提出了新要求。因此,对中部崛起战略效果进行科学客观的评价是十分必要的,一方面能够肯定过去十年内实施中部崛起战略所取得的成绩,另一方面也能总结战略实施过程中存在的不足,进而形成我国区域协调发展的良好局面。本文以区域非均衡发展理论和政策评价理论为支撑,采用规范分析和实证分析相结合的方法,首先梳理了中部崛起战略发展历程,着重分析了中部崛起战略实施效果,中部地区在过去十年内经济实力不断增强,人民生活水平不断改善,经济结构持续优化升级,新型城镇化水平得到显著提高,“三基地一枢纽”的地位得到巩固,但中部地区在崛起过程也面临着许多问题。在此基础上,利用省级面板数据,借助于双重差分评估方法,量化评价中部崛起战略的实施对中部地区经济发展的影响,探究其是否促进中部地区经济发展、是否缩小我国区域发展差距,并对引起变化的主要因素进行差分内差分分析,分析表明:中部崛起战略的实施促进了中部地区GDP增长率的提高,缩小了中部地区与我国其他区域之间的发展差距。促进中部地区经济增长的主要因素有:资本投入的增长、产业结构优化、对外开放程度的提高以及政府干预程度的下降。人力资本水平和技术进步对中部地区经济增长带动作用不强烈。最后,基于实施现状和实证结果,提出了新阶段促进中部地区崛起的政策建议。本文的特色和创新点在于:一是从促进我国区域协调发展的角度对中部崛起战略进行评价,考察中部崛起战略的实施是否缩小了中部地区与我国其他地区之间的发展差距;二是将双重差分方法运用到评价中部崛起战略的研究中,量化分析了中部崛起战略的实施效果,明确了政策发挥作用的途径,为未来政策的持续推进提供借鉴。
[Abstract]:In order to narrow the gap of development and accelerate the pace of development in the central region, China issued in 2006 the views of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on promoting the rise of the central region. So far, the central rise strategy has been officially implemented the tenth anniversary. At the same time, as China enters the stage of the new normal economy superimposed by three phases and the construction of "Belt and Road", the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the three major strategies of the Yangtze River Economic Belt have provided new development space for the central region. Also for the new era of the central region to achieve the full-scale rise of the new requirements. Therefore, it is necessary to make a scientific and objective evaluation of the effect of the central rise strategy. On the one hand, we can confirm the achievements made in the implementation of the central rise strategy in the past decade, on the other hand, we can sum up the shortcomings in the implementation of the strategy. Then form our country area coordinated development good situation. Based on the theory of regional unbalanced development and the theory of policy evaluation, this paper combines the normative analysis with the empirical analysis, firstly combs the development course of the strategy of the rise of the central region, and emphatically analyzes the effect of the implementation of the strategy of the rise of the central region. In the past decade, the economic strength of the central region has been continuously strengthened, the living standards of the people have been continuously improved, the economic structure has been continuously optimized and upgraded, the level of new-type urbanization has been significantly improved, and the status of "three bases and one hub" has been consolidated. But the central region also faces many problems in the process of rising. On this basis, using provincial panel data, with the aid of double differential evaluation method, the paper quantitatively evaluates the impact of the implementation of the central rising strategy on the economic development of the central region, and probes into whether it promotes the economic development of the central region. Whether to narrow the gap of regional development of our country, and to carry on the difference analysis to the main factor which causes the change, the analysis indicated: the implementation of the strategy of the rise of the central region promoted the increase of the GDP growth rate of the central region, The development gap between the central region and other regions of China has been narrowed. The main factors to promote the economic growth in the central region are: the growth of capital investment, the optimization of industrial structure, the improvement of the degree of opening to the outside world and the decline of the degree of government intervention. The level of human capital and technological progress to the central region economic growth drive effect is not strong. Finally, based on the implementation status and empirical results, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the rise of the central region in the new stage. The features and innovations of this paper are as follows: first, to evaluate the strategy of the rise of the central region from the angle of promoting the coordinated development of China's region, and to investigate whether the implementation of the strategy of the rise of the central region has narrowed the development gap between the central region and other regions of China; The second is to apply the method of double difference to the research of evaluating the strategy of the rise of the central region, to analyze quantitatively the effect of the strategy of the rise of the central region, and to make clear the way of the policy to play a role, and to provide the reference for the sustainable development of the policy in the future.
【学位授予单位】:郑州大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2017
【分类号】:F127
[Abstract]:In order to narrow the gap of development and accelerate the pace of development in the central region, China issued in 2006 the views of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on promoting the rise of the central region. So far, the central rise strategy has been officially implemented the tenth anniversary. At the same time, as China enters the stage of the new normal economy superimposed by three phases and the construction of "Belt and Road", the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the three major strategies of the Yangtze River Economic Belt have provided new development space for the central region. Also for the new era of the central region to achieve the full-scale rise of the new requirements. Therefore, it is necessary to make a scientific and objective evaluation of the effect of the central rise strategy. On the one hand, we can confirm the achievements made in the implementation of the central rise strategy in the past decade, on the other hand, we can sum up the shortcomings in the implementation of the strategy. Then form our country area coordinated development good situation. Based on the theory of regional unbalanced development and the theory of policy evaluation, this paper combines the normative analysis with the empirical analysis, firstly combs the development course of the strategy of the rise of the central region, and emphatically analyzes the effect of the implementation of the strategy of the rise of the central region. In the past decade, the economic strength of the central region has been continuously strengthened, the living standards of the people have been continuously improved, the economic structure has been continuously optimized and upgraded, the level of new-type urbanization has been significantly improved, and the status of "three bases and one hub" has been consolidated. But the central region also faces many problems in the process of rising. On this basis, using provincial panel data, with the aid of double differential evaluation method, the paper quantitatively evaluates the impact of the implementation of the central rising strategy on the economic development of the central region, and probes into whether it promotes the economic development of the central region. Whether to narrow the gap of regional development of our country, and to carry on the difference analysis to the main factor which causes the change, the analysis indicated: the implementation of the strategy of the rise of the central region promoted the increase of the GDP growth rate of the central region, The development gap between the central region and other regions of China has been narrowed. The main factors to promote the economic growth in the central region are: the growth of capital investment, the optimization of industrial structure, the improvement of the degree of opening to the outside world and the decline of the degree of government intervention. The level of human capital and technological progress to the central region economic growth drive effect is not strong. Finally, based on the implementation status and empirical results, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the rise of the central region in the new stage. The features and innovations of this paper are as follows: first, to evaluate the strategy of the rise of the central region from the angle of promoting the coordinated development of China's region, and to investigate whether the implementation of the strategy of the rise of the central region has narrowed the development gap between the central region and other regions of China; The second is to apply the method of double difference to the research of evaluating the strategy of the rise of the central region, to analyze quantitatively the effect of the strategy of the rise of the central region, and to make clear the way of the policy to play a role, and to provide the reference for the sustainable development of the policy in the future.
【学位授予单位】:郑州大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2017
【分类号】:F127
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