中国经济增长对农村就业综合承载力影响研究

发布时间：2018-12-06 06:57

【摘要】：农村发展是我国关注的焦点,而就业为民生之本,所以农村就业问题应引起我们的高度重视,且在我国经济飞速发展的背景下,经济增长必定会从各方面影响农村就业承载能力。基于此,我们研究中国经济增长对农村就业承载力的影响。本文首先研究了农村就业综合承载力的科学概念与结构,在此基础上从农村资源环境、基础设施、社会经济三方面论述中国经济增长影响农村就业承载规模的具体机制。其次,从上述三方面建立指标体系,运用主成分分析法确定指标权重,通过换算得出各省农村就业人口承载规模,并与农村就业人数对比分析。研究结果表明,近12年重庆农村就业人口超载情况最为严重。同时,近12年,全国31个省、直辖市、自治区中,有18个省、直辖市、自治区出现了不同程度的超载情况,整体农村就业状况不容乐观。其中东部地区11省中有6省出现了超载情况;中部地区8省中有6省出现了超载情况;西部地区12省有6省出现了超载情况。再次,基于我国2004-2015年省际面板数据,建立动态面板模型,运用GMM方法,分别针对全国及区域研究经济增长及其他因素对农村就业承载力的影响。实证结果表明:经济增长对农村就业承载力起到了一定的推动作用,其中东部地区经济增长起到的推动作用尤为明显;滞后一期农村就业承载力对当期农村就业承载力有明显的推动作用;对于全国、中部、西部地区,外商投资的影响效果并不明显,但对于东部地区,外商投资对农村就业承载力造成一定的影响。最后,依据研究结果提出相应对策建议。第一,促进区域协调发展;第二,大力发展农村经济;第三,改善农村就业环境;第四,提升农村人力资本;第五,加快农村人口转移。
[Abstract]:Rural development is the focus of our country's attention, and employment is the foundation of people's livelihood, so we should attach great importance to the issue of rural employment, and in the context of the rapid economic development of our country, Economic growth will certainly affect the carrying capacity of rural employment in all aspects. Based on this, we study the impact of China's economic growth on rural employment capacity. This paper first studies the scientific concept and structure of the comprehensive carrying capacity of rural employment, and on this basis discusses the specific mechanism of the impact of China's economic growth on the carrying scale of rural employment from the three aspects of rural resource environment, infrastructure and social economy. Secondly, the index system is established from the above three aspects, the index weight is determined by principal component analysis, and the carrying scale of rural employed population in each province is obtained by conversion, and the comparative analysis is made with the rural employment population. The results show that the overloading of rural employment population in Chongqing is the most serious in the past 12 years. At the same time, in the past 12 years, among the 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China, 18 provinces, municipalities directly under the Central Government and autonomous regions have been overloaded to varying degrees, and the overall employment situation in rural areas is not optimistic. Six of the 11 provinces in the eastern region were overloaded, 6 of the 8 provinces in the central region were overloaded, and 6 of the 12 provinces in the western region were overloaded. Thirdly, based on the provincial panel data from 2004 to 2015, a dynamic panel model is established, and the GMM method is used to study the impact of economic growth and other factors on the rural employment capacity. The empirical results show that: economic growth has played a role in promoting the rural employment capacity, especially in the eastern region; The lagging first stage of rural employment carrying capacity has a significant role in promoting the current rural employment carrying capacity; For the whole country, central and western regions, the effect of foreign investment is not obvious, but for the eastern region, foreign investment has a certain impact on the carrying capacity of rural employment. Finally, according to the research results, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. First, promote regional coordinated development; second, vigorously develop rural economy; third, improve the rural employment environment; fourth, enhance rural human capital; fifth, accelerate rural population transfer.
【学位授予单位】：湖南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F124;F249.2

【参考文献】