河北省出口贸易对经济发展的影响研究

发布时间：2018-12-11 00:07

【摘要】：一国的经济增长主要取决于投资需求、消费需求和出口需求三驾马车,在其他条件不变时,通过增加出口，可以以乘数效应增加总需求，进而推动经济增长，所以我国把出口导向政策作为经济战略之一,出口贸易对我国经济发展起到了重要的推动作用。河北省也一直重视出口贸易的发展，但目前河北省出口贸易存在贸易总量偏小出口结构不合理市场过于集中等问题，导致出口贸易对河北省经济的拉动度不够。因此，研究河北省出口贸易的现状、存在的问题以及河北省的出口贸易与经济增长之间的关系，并在此基础上提出相应的对策具有非常重要的现实意义。本文首先从出口贸易规模、出口贸易方式、结构等方面对河北省的出口贸易现状及存在的问题进行了深入分析，，总体来看河北省出口贸易增长率呈上涨趋势、加工贸易总额不断上升、机电及高新技术产品出口成为主力、新兴市场出口总额不断上升、民营企业出口发展迅速等。同时，河北省出口贸易也存在诸多问题，表现为出口贸易量偏小、出口商品结构有待优化、加工贸易占比过低、出口市场多元化程度低以及出口主体结构不合理等。在上述研究基础上，本文利用协整分析、误差修正模型以及格兰杰因果检验等方法对河北省出口贸易对经济发展的影响进行了实证分析，实证结果表明，无论长期还是短期，河北省出口贸易与经济发展之间均存在稳定的均衡关系，但是相关性比较弱；河北省出口贸易与经济增长之间存在双向因果关系。最后，本文针对河北省出口贸易存在的问题提出了积极发展加工贸易、优化河北省出口商品结构、继续推进“市场多元化”战略、深化外贸经营主体改革、实施品牌战略、大力培育优秀的对外贸易人才队伍等对策建议。
[Abstract]:The economic growth of a country mainly depends on the investment demand, consumer demand and export demand troika. When other conditions are unchanged, by increasing exports, the total demand can be increased by a multiplier effect, and then the economic growth can be promoted. Therefore, our country regards the export-oriented policy as one of the economic strategies, and export trade plays an important role in promoting the economic development of our country. Hebei Province has always attached importance to the development of export trade, but at present, there are some problems in Hebei's export trade, such as the unreasonable structure of total volume of trade is too small, the structure of export is too concentrated, and so on, which leads to the insufficient pulling degree of export trade to the economy of Hebei Province. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the present situation, existing problems and the relationship between export trade and economic growth of Hebei Province, and put forward corresponding countermeasures on this basis. This paper first analyzes the current situation and existing problems of Hebei's export trade from the aspects of scale, mode and structure of export trade. The overall growth rate of Hebei's export trade shows an upward trend. The total amount of processing trade has been rising, the export of machinery and new technology products has become the main force, the total export volume of emerging markets has been rising, and the export of private enterprises is developing rapidly. At the same time, there are many problems in Hebei's export trade, such as small volume of export trade, the structure of export commodities to be optimized, the low proportion of processing trade, the low degree of diversification of export market and the unreasonable structure of export main body, etc. On the basis of the above research, this paper uses cointegration analysis, error correction model and Granger causality test to analyze the impact of Hebei's export trade on economic development. The empirical results show that, in the long run or in the short term, There is a stable equilibrium relationship between export trade and economic development in Hebei Province, but the correlation is relatively weak. There is a two-way causality between Hebei export trade and economic growth. Finally, in view of the existing problems of Hebei export trade, this paper puts forward to actively develop processing trade, optimize the structure of Hebei export commodities, continue to push forward the strategy of "market diversification", deepen the reform of the main body of foreign trade, and implement the brand strategy. We should make great efforts to cultivate excellent foreign trade talents and so on.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.8;F127

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