基于结构视角的贸易政策与产业政策协调研究
发布时间：2018-12-13 21:48
【摘要】：为了实现经济的快速稳定增长，促进产业结构升级，形成出口优势，我国需要制定合适的产业政策与贸易政策来引导和实现政策目标。在制定政策过程中，贸易政策与产业政策协调是政府引导经济快速发展，结构健康稳定的基础。而制定协调的贸易政策与产业政策的难点在于很难把握政策之间的相互作用。 基于结构视角来研究政策协调问题，就是在贸易结构和产业结构上研究两个结构的协调问题。在结构视角下，贸易政策与产业政策协调的目标就是贸易结构与产业结构的良性互动。 通过考察1980-2012年我国贸易结构与产业结构的演进过程，发现我国贸易结构与产业结构的发展存在许多问题，而且贸易结构与产业结构之间缺乏协调性。通过采用SITC一级分类法量化贸易结构，采用三次产业分类法量化产业结构。在1980-2012年我国贸易数据与产值数据的基础上计算得出了我国进口结构变动效应、出口结构变动效应和产业结构变动效应。通过采用经典回归分析、时滞分析、格兰杰因果检验和向量自回归分析等方法，，分析了进口结构变动效应、出口结构变动效应和产业结构变动效应的相互作用关系，得出了进口结构变动是产业结构变动的格兰杰原因，产业结构变动是出口结构变动的格兰杰原因的结论。 在明确了进口结构、产业结构和出口结构的关系后，对于制定协调性的贸易政策与产业政策提供了有效的参考。这说明我国应该制定吸引高新科技产品进口，促进资本技术密集型产品出口的贸易政策以及鼓励企业创新，提高质量的产业政策。
[Abstract]:In order to achieve rapid and stable economic growth, promote the upgrading of industrial structure and form export advantages, China needs to formulate appropriate industrial and trade policies to guide and realize the policy objectives. In the process of policy formulation, the coordination of trade policy and industrial policy is the foundation of the government to guide the rapid development of economy and the healthy and stable structure. The difficulty of formulating coordinated trade policy and industrial policy is that it is difficult to grasp the interaction between policies. To study policy coordination from the perspective of structure is to study the coordination between trade structure and industrial structure. From the perspective of structure, the goal of the coordination of trade policy and industrial policy is the benign interaction between trade structure and industrial structure. By examining the evolution of China's trade structure and industrial structure from 1980 to 2012, it is found that there are many problems in the development of China's trade structure and industrial structure, and there is a lack of coordination between trade structure and industrial structure. The trade structure is quantified by SITC first class classification, and the industrial structure is quantified by three industrial classification method. Based on the trade data and output value data from 1980 to 2012, the effects of import structure change, export structure change and industrial structure change are calculated. By means of classical regression analysis, time-delay analysis, Granger causality test and vector self-regression analysis, this paper analyzes the interaction among import structure change effect, export structure change effect and industrial structure change effect. It is concluded that the change of import structure is the Granger cause of industrial structure change, and the industrial structure change is Granger reason of export structure change. After clarifying the relationship among import structure, industrial structure and export structure, it provides an effective reference for the formulation of coordinated trade policy and industrial policy. This indicates that China should formulate the trade policy to attract the import of high-tech products, promote the export of capital-technology-intensive products, and encourage enterprises to innovate and improve their quality.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.0;F124
本文编号：2377301
[Abstract]:In order to achieve rapid and stable economic growth, promote the upgrading of industrial structure and form export advantages, China needs to formulate appropriate industrial and trade policies to guide and realize the policy objectives. In the process of policy formulation, the coordination of trade policy and industrial policy is the foundation of the government to guide the rapid development of economy and the healthy and stable structure. The difficulty of formulating coordinated trade policy and industrial policy is that it is difficult to grasp the interaction between policies. To study policy coordination from the perspective of structure is to study the coordination between trade structure and industrial structure. From the perspective of structure, the goal of the coordination of trade policy and industrial policy is the benign interaction between trade structure and industrial structure. By examining the evolution of China's trade structure and industrial structure from 1980 to 2012, it is found that there are many problems in the development of China's trade structure and industrial structure, and there is a lack of coordination between trade structure and industrial structure. The trade structure is quantified by SITC first class classification, and the industrial structure is quantified by three industrial classification method. Based on the trade data and output value data from 1980 to 2012, the effects of import structure change, export structure change and industrial structure change are calculated. By means of classical regression analysis, time-delay analysis, Granger causality test and vector self-regression analysis, this paper analyzes the interaction among import structure change effect, export structure change effect and industrial structure change effect. It is concluded that the change of import structure is the Granger cause of industrial structure change, and the industrial structure change is Granger reason of export structure change. After clarifying the relationship among import structure, industrial structure and export structure, it provides an effective reference for the formulation of coordinated trade policy and industrial policy. This indicates that China should formulate the trade policy to attract the import of high-tech products, promote the export of capital-technology-intensive products, and encourage enterprises to innovate and improve their quality.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.0;F124
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