苏粤两省对外贸易对产业结构升级影响比较研究

发布时间：2018-12-18 13:42

【摘要】：对外贸易和产业结构升级一直是国际经贸领域的一大热点话题，大量学者对其作了相关研究和探讨，但是对两者之间的影响研究却不是很多，特别是省际之间的比较研究较少。随着经济一体化的加剧和中国开放程度的提高，对外贸易能够得到快速发展是毫无疑问的。江苏省和广东省的对外贸易规模始终保持在全国各个省排名前五的位置，与此同时增长速度几乎始终保持百分比两位数。改革开放在促进两省对外贸易不断发展的同时也使得两省产业结构进一步优化升级。产业结构由“二、一、三”结构发展成“二、三、一”结构，且第二产业和第三产业的差距日益缩小。因此，研究对外贸易对产业结构升级的作用机理，力图在苏粤两省实现对外贸易发展的同时，驱动苏粤两省的产业结构加速转型升级具有一定的现实意义。本文以江苏省和广东省为研究对象，比较研究苏粤两省对外贸易对产业结构升级的影响，文章主要分为三个部分：第一部分首先分析了对外贸易对产业结构升级的作用机理；其次分析了江苏省和广东省对外贸易和产业结构现状；第三部分在前面两个部分的基础上开始进行对外贸易对产业结构升级影响的省际比较分析。在这一部分，，本文首先比较了苏粤两省对外贸易和产业结构现状，然后运用对外贸易和产业结构相关数据建立时间序列模型，从实证角度比较分析苏粤两省对外贸易对产业结构升级的影响，研究发现，在长期和短期内苏粤两省对外贸易对产业结构升级的影响是不同的。长期而言对外贸易能够促进江苏省的产业结构升级，而对外贸易对广东省的产业结构升级影响不明显，且呈现出一定的阻碍作用；短期而言，只有进口能够促进江苏省产业结构升级，而江苏省出口和广东省进、出口均对当地的产业结构升级没有影响。在实证比较研究苏粤两省对外贸易对产业结构升级影响的基础上，本文进一步比较分析了苏粤两省对外贸易对三大产业的影响，发现两省对外贸易都促进了当地第一产业的转移和第二产业的发展，但是都阻碍了两省第三产业的发展。江苏省对外贸易对促进第一产业资源转移和第二产业发展所起到的作用要大于广东省，对第三产业的抑制作用要小于广东省。对外贸易对两省三大产业的影响有利于进一步了解和分析对外贸易对产业结构升级的影响。针对上面的实证结果，本文进行了原因分析，发现对外贸易结构的不合理使得对外贸易都促进了两省第一产业的转移和第二产业的发展，但是都阻碍了两省第三产业的发展。对外贸易结构的差异是造成对外贸易对苏粤两省产业结构升级不同影响的原因，而两省对外贸易结构的差异是由于两省要素禀赋、FDI、技术、政策和地理位置的不同而产生的。在上面研究的基础上本文提出了合理有效的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Foreign trade and upgrading of industrial structure have always been a hot topic in the field of international economic and trade. A large number of scholars have made relevant research and discussion on them, but there are not many studies on the impact between them, especially the comparative study between provinces. With the intensification of economic integration and the improvement of China's openness, there is no doubt that foreign trade can develop rapidly. The foreign trade of Jiangsu Province and Guangdong Province remained in the top five of the country, while the growth rate was almost always in double digits. Reform and opening up promote the continuous development of foreign trade between the two provinces, but also further optimize and upgrade the industrial structure of the two provinces. The industrial structure has developed from "two, one, three" to "two, three, one", and the gap between the secondary industry and the tertiary industry is narrowing day by day. Therefore, it is of practical significance to study the mechanism of foreign trade on the upgrading of industrial structure in order to realize the development of foreign trade between Jiangsu and Guangdong and to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure of the two provinces at the same time. This article takes Jiangsu Province and Guangdong Province as the research object, compares the influence of the foreign trade of the two provinces on the upgrading of the industrial structure. The article is divided into three parts: the first part analyzes the mechanism of the foreign trade on the upgrading of the industrial structure; Secondly, it analyzes the current situation of foreign trade and industrial structure in Jiangsu Province and Guangdong Province. The third part begins to analyze the impact of foreign trade on the upgrading of industrial structure on the basis of the former two parts. In this part, this paper first compares the current situation of foreign trade and industrial structure between Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces, and then establishes a time series model by using the relevant data of foreign trade and industrial structure. From the perspective of empirical analysis of the impact of foreign trade in Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces on the upgrading of industrial structure, it is found that the impact of foreign trade on the upgrading of industrial structure is different between the two provinces in the long term and in the short term. In the long run, foreign trade can promote the upgrading of industrial structure of Jiangsu Province, but foreign trade has no obvious influence on the upgrading of industrial structure of Guangdong Province, and it has a certain hindrance effect. In the short term, only imports can promote the upgrading of Jiangsu's industrial structure, while both Jiangsu's exports and Guangdong's imports and exports have no effect on the upgrading of local industrial structures. On the basis of empirical comparative study on the influence of foreign trade between Jiangsu and Guangdong on the upgrading of industrial structure, this paper makes a further comparative analysis of the impact of foreign trade of the two provinces on the three major industries. It is found that the foreign trade of the two provinces promotes the transfer of the local primary industry and the development of the secondary industry, but both hinder the development of the tertiary industry of the two provinces. The foreign trade in Jiangsu Province plays a greater role in promoting the transfer of primary industry resources and the development of secondary industry than in Guangdong Province, and in restraining the tertiary industry less than in Guangdong Province. The influence of foreign trade on the three industries of two provinces is helpful to further understand and analyze the influence of foreign trade on the upgrading of industrial structure. In view of the above empirical results, this paper analyzes the reasons, and finds that the unreasonable structure of foreign trade promotes the transfer of the primary industry and the development of the secondary industry in both provinces, but both hinder the development of the tertiary industry in the two provinces. The difference of the structure of foreign trade is the cause of the different influence of foreign trade on the upgrading of the industrial structure of the two provinces, and the difference of the structure of foreign trade between the two provinces is caused by the difference of factor endowment, FDI, technology, policy and geographical location of the two provinces. On the basis of the above research, this paper puts forward reasonable and effective policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：江南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.8;F127

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