我国对外贸易与城乡收入差距关系研究
发布时间：2019-01-01 20:56
【摘要】：中国自改革开放以来，国民经济连续多年保持高速增长，中国的对外贸易也获得了前所未有的发展。中国对外贸易总额由1978年的206.4亿美元跃升至2012年的38669.8亿美元，年平均增长率高达17.95%，对外贸易成为推动我国经济高速发展的一架马车。与此同时，我国对外贸易依存度也大幅攀升，在2006年达到历史最高值65.17%，而2012年依然维持在49.99%的高位。中国对外贸易依存度的快速上升对中国经济安全和社会稳定的影响是不容忽视的，其中对外贸易发展的区域差异和对各种优势资源的吸引引发的国内居民的收入分配效应便是其中之一。从现实情况来看，随着对外贸易的快速发展，我国城乡收入差距逐年扩大，城乡收入差距比由1978年的1.86:1上升至2012年的3.13:1，并于2007年达到历史最大值3.33:1，已经超过了国际警戒线水平。 纵观国内外对外贸易发展、经济增长与收入分配的文献，学界对对外贸易发展与经济增长的关系给予了较为详细的讨论，但是研究我国对外贸易发展与城乡收入差距关系的文献较少且观点分歧很大，因此研究我国对外贸易发展和城乡收入差距的之间的关系有明显的理论意义和现实意义。 本文在对以往相关文献梳理的基础上，从指标数据的选取、研究内容和研究方法三个方面总结了现有文献存在不足和继续研究的空间。在指标数据的选取中，选取1990-2010这一时间段进行研究，，在此基础上，以2001年为节点分阶段对文章主题进行研究。在研究内容方面，将对外贸易影响城乡收入差距的三大作用机制以交叉项的形式纳入计量模型，弥补了现有文献中的研究盲点，量化了对外贸易三大作用机制对城乡收入差距的影响方向和影响程度。在研究方法上，选用系统广义矩（SGMM）方法配合工具变量估计了动态面板模型，保证了模型估计结果的稳健性。 本文的实证结果表明：1990至2010年间，在影响城乡居民收入差距的众多因素中，我国对外贸易的发展有利于缩小城乡收入差距。但是，在入世前后，对外贸易对我国地区城乡收入差距的影响程度、影响方向和显著性都不相同。具体表现在中国加入WTO之前，对外贸易的发展能够显著缩小城乡收入差距；而加入WTO之后，在对外贸易的影响下，城乡收入差距反而扩大了。这主要是因为入世后我国对外贸易结构、贸易方式发生着根本性的变化，劳动密集型产业为农村劳动力带来的益处逐渐减弱，相反资本、技术密集型产业的发展为城市技术劳动者提供了更好的机会，对外贸易产业结构效应以及外商直接投资的影响也支持了这一观点。值得注意的是，无论从长期还是从中国加入WTO前后两个阶段来看，我国外贸深化通过改善劳动力就业结构而为乡村劳动力提高收入带来更多机遇，在一定程度上有利于城乡收入差距的缩小。因而，如何更好的通过对外贸易的就业效应来缩小城乡收入差距应该引起重视。
[Abstract]:Since China's reform and opening up, the national economy has maintained rapid growth for many years, and China's foreign trade has also achieved unprecedented development. The total volume of China's foreign trade jumped from 20.64 billion US dollars in 1978 to 3.86698 trillion US dollars in 2012, with an average annual growth rate of 17.95%. Foreign trade has become a carriage driving the rapid development of China's economy. At the same time, China's dependence on foreign trade has also risen sharply, reaching a record high of 65.17in 2006, while remaining at a high of 49.99 percent in 2012. The impact of the rapid increase in China's dependence on foreign trade on China's economic security and social stability cannot be ignored. One of them is the regional difference in the development of foreign trade and the income distribution effect of domestic residents caused by the attraction of various superior resources. In reality, with the rapid development of foreign trade, the urban-rural income gap in China has expanded year by year. The ratio of urban-rural income gap has risen from 1.86: 1 in 1978 to 3.13: 1 in 2012. And in 2007 reached a record high of 3.33: 1, has exceeded the international warning line level. Throughout the literature on the development of foreign trade at home and abroad, economic growth and income distribution, academic circles have given a more detailed discussion on the relationship between foreign trade development and economic growth. However, there are few literatures on the relationship between the development of foreign trade and the income gap between urban and rural areas. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the relationship between the development of foreign trade and the income gap between urban and rural areas. On the basis of combing the previous literatures, this paper summarizes the deficiency of the existing literature and the space for further research from three aspects: the selection of index data, the research contents and the research methods. In the selection of index data, the time period 1990-2010 is selected to study, and on this basis, 2001 is taken as the node to study the theme of the article in stages. In terms of research content, the three mechanisms of foreign trade affecting the income gap between urban and rural areas are brought into the econometric model in the form of cross items, which make up the blind spot in the existing literature. This paper quantifies the influence direction and degree of the three mechanisms of foreign trade on the income gap between urban and rural areas. In the research method, the generalized moment (SGMM) method is used to estimate the dynamic panel model with tool variables, which ensures the robustness of the model estimation results. The empirical results show that: from 1990 to 2010, the development of China's foreign trade helps to narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas among the many factors that affect the income gap between urban and rural residents. However, before and after China's entry into WTO, the influence of foreign trade on the income gap between urban and rural areas in China is different, the influence direction and significance are different. After China's entry into WTO, the development of foreign trade can significantly narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas, but after China's entry into WTO, the income gap between urban and rural areas has been widened under the influence of foreign trade. This is mainly due to the fundamental changes in China's foreign trade structure and mode of trade after China's accession to the WTO. The benefits brought to the rural labor force by labor-intensive industries have gradually weakened. On the contrary, capital. The development of technology-intensive industries provides better opportunities for urban skilled workers, which is supported by the effects of foreign trade industrial structure and foreign direct investment. It is worth noting that, both in the long run and in the two stages before and after China's entry into WTO, the deepening of China's foreign trade brings more opportunities for rural labor to raise their income by improving the structure of labor force employment. To a certain extent, it is conducive to narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas. Therefore, how to reduce the income gap between urban and rural areas through the employment effect of foreign trade should be paid more attention to.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.7;F124.7
[Abstract]:Since China's reform and opening up, the national economy has maintained rapid growth for many years, and China's foreign trade has also achieved unprecedented development. The total volume of China's foreign trade jumped from 20.64 billion US dollars in 1978 to 3.86698 trillion US dollars in 2012, with an average annual growth rate of 17.95%. Foreign trade has become a carriage driving the rapid development of China's economy. At the same time, China's dependence on foreign trade has also risen sharply, reaching a record high of 65.17in 2006, while remaining at a high of 49.99 percent in 2012. The impact of the rapid increase in China's dependence on foreign trade on China's economic security and social stability cannot be ignored. One of them is the regional difference in the development of foreign trade and the income distribution effect of domestic residents caused by the attraction of various superior resources. In reality, with the rapid development of foreign trade, the urban-rural income gap in China has expanded year by year. The ratio of urban-rural income gap has risen from 1.86: 1 in 1978 to 3.13: 1 in 2012. And in 2007 reached a record high of 3.33: 1, has exceeded the international warning line level. Throughout the literature on the development of foreign trade at home and abroad, economic growth and income distribution, academic circles have given a more detailed discussion on the relationship between foreign trade development and economic growth. However, there are few literatures on the relationship between the development of foreign trade and the income gap between urban and rural areas. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the relationship between the development of foreign trade and the income gap between urban and rural areas. On the basis of combing the previous literatures, this paper summarizes the deficiency of the existing literature and the space for further research from three aspects: the selection of index data, the research contents and the research methods. In the selection of index data, the time period 1990-2010 is selected to study, and on this basis, 2001 is taken as the node to study the theme of the article in stages. In terms of research content, the three mechanisms of foreign trade affecting the income gap between urban and rural areas are brought into the econometric model in the form of cross items, which make up the blind spot in the existing literature. This paper quantifies the influence direction and degree of the three mechanisms of foreign trade on the income gap between urban and rural areas. In the research method, the generalized moment (SGMM) method is used to estimate the dynamic panel model with tool variables, which ensures the robustness of the model estimation results. The empirical results show that: from 1990 to 2010, the development of China's foreign trade helps to narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas among the many factors that affect the income gap between urban and rural residents. However, before and after China's entry into WTO, the influence of foreign trade on the income gap between urban and rural areas in China is different, the influence direction and significance are different. After China's entry into WTO, the development of foreign trade can significantly narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas, but after China's entry into WTO, the income gap between urban and rural areas has been widened under the influence of foreign trade. This is mainly due to the fundamental changes in China's foreign trade structure and mode of trade after China's accession to the WTO. The benefits brought to the rural labor force by labor-intensive industries have gradually weakened. On the contrary, capital. The development of technology-intensive industries provides better opportunities for urban skilled workers, which is supported by the effects of foreign trade industrial structure and foreign direct investment. It is worth noting that, both in the long run and in the two stages before and after China's entry into WTO, the deepening of China's foreign trade brings more opportunities for rural labor to raise their income by improving the structure of labor force employment. To a certain extent, it is conducive to narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas. Therefore, how to reduce the income gap between urban and rural areas through the employment effect of foreign trade should be paid more attention to.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.7;F124.7
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