反弹、分化与周期转换中的中国宏观经济——2017年中期中国宏观经济分析与预测

发布时间：2019-02-15 17:11

【摘要】：2017年上半年中国宏观经济呈现出反弹与分化两大基本特征。以宏观量价之间趋势性分化为代表,中国经济在反弹进程中表现出更广范围和更多层面上的分化特征。当前中国经济最主要的问题是短期国内宏观经济传导不畅和长期生产率下滑。这集中体现了中国经济在经济周期性下滑过程中积聚的各种风险的释放与国内政策趋紧、传统动能削弱和新周期孕育之间所产生的各种结构性矛盾。本轮世界新周期难以撑起中国的周期转换,但对中国经济的拉动作用却使得我们有更多时间解决内部结构性问题。要真正启动新周期,需要通过新一轮改革开放解决中国宏观经济传导问题,以新动能的构建为核心孕育新周期的动力源。对此,笔者提出了新改革的核心关注点和新模式。
[Abstract]:In the first half of 2017, China's macro economy showed two basic characteristics: rebound and differentiation. With the trend differentiation between macro volume and price as the representative, the Chinese economy shows a wider range and more differentiation characteristics in the process of rebound. The main problems of China's economy are short-term macroeconomic transmission and long-term productivity decline. This reflects all kinds of structural contradictions between the release of various risks accumulated in China's economic cyclical downturn and the tightening of domestic policies, the weakening of traditional kinetic energy and the gestation of a new cycle. This new cycle of the world is difficult to support China's cycle transition, but the pull on the Chinese economy has given us more time to solve internal structural problems. In order to really start the new cycle, we need to solve the problem of China's macroeconomic transmission through a new round of reform and opening up, and take the construction of new kinetic energy as the core power source to breed the new cycle. In response, the author puts forward the core concern and new model of the new reform.
【基金】：“中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心”子项目“认识适应和引领经济新常态研究”阶段性研究成果国家社科基金重点项目“中高速增长阶段收入分配调整与产业结构升级研究”(14AZD019) 中央在京高校重大成果转化项目“京津冀协同一体化发展研究” 国家社会科学基金青年项目“延迟退休对我国劳动力市场的影响及其作用机制研究”(16CJL049)的资助
【分类号】：F124

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