基于生产函数法对中国潜在产出的实证研究
发布时间：2019-04-02 02:20
【摘要】：本文使用生产函数法从不同角度建立经济计量模型估计了我国1978-2012年的潜在产出和潜在增长率。本文分别选取固定资产存量和电力消耗量作为资本存量的替代变量，在此基础上进一步建立固定要素产出弹性和可变要素产出弹性模型估计潜在产出；以及通过分产业建立相应的生产函数模型然后合成全国潜在产出的方法估计我国的潜在产出和产出缺口。本文研究表明：从对未来的预测能力上看，基于电力消耗的潜在产出估计模型效果最好，预测能力最强；从经济周期划分上来看，依照固定要素产出弹性模型估计结果划分的周期与实际经济周期最吻合；但是从奥肯定律与菲利普斯曲线模型的拟合程度上来说，分产业估计模型的效果最好。此外，本文还发现：中国应对经济危机而进行的大规模固定资产投资并没有起到应有的效果，资本使用效率指标呈现出一种加速下滑的态势，固定资产投资只带来了表面上的GDP，却没有拉动中国潜在产出的增长。而且中国固定资产投资对经济的拉动作用已经到达了规模报酬不变，甚至开始出现规模报酬递减的可能。在产业方面，中国农业生产在三十年内保持基本稳定，现在已经逐渐达到潜在产出水平，证明了中国农业政策是持续有效的。但是，中国工业生产现阶段正处于经济周期的下行阶段，潜在增长率持续下滑。这也与中国第三产业迅速发展，逐步取代第二产业成为中国经济发展的主力相关。最后，固定要素产出弹性模型告诉我们，中国潜在增长率的主要影响因素是全要素生产率，全要素生产率的提高或者下降与经济周期存在很大的相关性。
[Abstract]:In this paper, we use the production function method to establish econometric models from different angles to estimate the potential output and potential growth rate of China from 1978 to 2012. In this paper, fixed assets stock and electricity consumption are selected as alternative variables of capital stock, and then fixed factor output elasticity model and variable factor output elasticity model are established to estimate potential output. And the method to estimate the potential output and output gap of our country by establishing the corresponding production function model and synthesizing the national potential output. The research in this paper shows that the potential output estimation model based on power consumption has the best effect and the strongest prediction ability from the perspective of the prediction ability of the future. From the point of view of economic cycle division, the cycle divided according to the estimation result of the elastic model of fixed factor output is the most consistent with the actual economic cycle. But in terms of the fitting degree between Okun's law and Phillips curve model, the sub-industry estimation model has the best effect. In addition, this paper also finds that China's large-scale fixed asset investment in response to the economic crisis has not played its due role, the index of capital use efficiency presents an accelerated decline in the situation. Fixed-asset investment has brought only superficial GDP, but has not driven growth in China's potential output. Moreover, the fixed asset investment in China has reached the constant return on scale, and even appeared the possibility of decreasing the return on scale. In terms of industry, China's agricultural production has remained basically stable for three decades, and now it has gradually reached the level of potential output, which proves that China's agricultural policy is sustainable and effective. However, China's industrial production is at this stage in the downward phase of the economic cycle, the potential growth rate continues to decline. This is also related to the rapid development of China's tertiary industry, gradually replacing the secondary industry as the main force of China's economic development. Finally, the elasticity model of fixed factor output tells us that the main influencing factor of China's potential growth rate is total factor productivity, and the increase or decline of total factor productivity has a great correlation with the economic cycle.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F124
本文编号：2452141
[Abstract]:In this paper, we use the production function method to establish econometric models from different angles to estimate the potential output and potential growth rate of China from 1978 to 2012. In this paper, fixed assets stock and electricity consumption are selected as alternative variables of capital stock, and then fixed factor output elasticity model and variable factor output elasticity model are established to estimate potential output. And the method to estimate the potential output and output gap of our country by establishing the corresponding production function model and synthesizing the national potential output. The research in this paper shows that the potential output estimation model based on power consumption has the best effect and the strongest prediction ability from the perspective of the prediction ability of the future. From the point of view of economic cycle division, the cycle divided according to the estimation result of the elastic model of fixed factor output is the most consistent with the actual economic cycle. But in terms of the fitting degree between Okun's law and Phillips curve model, the sub-industry estimation model has the best effect. In addition, this paper also finds that China's large-scale fixed asset investment in response to the economic crisis has not played its due role, the index of capital use efficiency presents an accelerated decline in the situation. Fixed-asset investment has brought only superficial GDP, but has not driven growth in China's potential output. Moreover, the fixed asset investment in China has reached the constant return on scale, and even appeared the possibility of decreasing the return on scale. In terms of industry, China's agricultural production has remained basically stable for three decades, and now it has gradually reached the level of potential output, which proves that China's agricultural policy is sustainable and effective. However, China's industrial production is at this stage in the downward phase of the economic cycle, the potential growth rate continues to decline. This is also related to the rapid development of China's tertiary industry, gradually replacing the secondary industry as the main force of China's economic development. Finally, the elasticity model of fixed factor output tells us that the main influencing factor of China's potential growth rate is total factor productivity, and the increase or decline of total factor productivity has a great correlation with the economic cycle.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F124
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