鄱阳湖地区生态、经济与金融空间耦合发展仿真研究
发布时间：2019-04-07 15:44
【摘要】：“系统耦合”最初起源于物理学。系统耦合后，功能与结构将发生相应变化，系统耦合效应是系统结构与环境条件相互协调、相互激发的综合效应。所以研究系统耦合效应即耦合关系的协调对提高系统生产力至关重要。 首先，本文选用系统动力学对鄱阳湖地区生态、经济与金融耦合系统进行分析，将耦合系统划分为人口子系统、生态子系统、经济子系统和金融子系统，建立耦合系统模型。基于2005-2012年的历史数据对鄱阳湖地区及城市生态、经济与金融耦合系统进行仿真，预测2015-2020年的结果。 其次，遵循评价指标构建原则，构建鄱阳湖地区生态、经济与金融耦合系统评价指标体系。基于2015-2020年的仿真数据，运用熵权法对指标确定权重，得到鄱阳湖地区及城市3个系统的综合指数。结果表明：鄱阳湖地区生态系统和金融系统综合指数均位于第3位，经济系统综合指数第1。6个城市中，景德镇市和鹰潭市的生态系统综合指数较高；6个城市的经济系统综合指数相差不多，南昌市排名第1；南昌市的金融系统综合指数均高于0.88，远远领先于其他5个城市。在此基础上，运用灰色关联度对鄱阳湖地区及城市生态、经济与金融耦合系统进行关联分析。以经济系统为参考序列，计算结果为鄱阳湖地区生态系统的关联度是0.3844，金融系统的关联度是0.8519；表明鄱阳湖地区经济主要受到金融的影响。原因是6个城市中除了鹰潭市的生态系统关联度高于金融系统关联度之外，其余5个城市均为金融系统关联度高于生态系统关联度。 再次，本文利用耦合度模型及耦合协调度模型，，计算出2015-2020年鄱阳湖地区及城市生态、经济与金融系统的耦合度及耦合协调度。依据耦合协调度划分标准，结论表明：鄱阳湖地区耦合系统处于濒临失调的阶段；南昌市在2018-2019年是轻度失调，其余为濒临失调；鹰潭市和景德镇市从轻度失调上升到了濒临失调的阶段；新余市和抚州市处于轻度失调的阶段；而九江市在2016年、2017年及2019年为中度失调，其余为濒临失调。 最后，依据分析结果对鄱阳湖地区生态、经济与金融空间耦合发展模式提出了几点建议：一是南昌市和新余市的“生态系统+经济系统”的耦合发展模式；二是景德镇市和鹰潭市的“金融系统+经济系统”的耦合发展模式；三是九江市和抚州市的“生态系统+金融系统+经济系统”的耦合发展模式。
[Abstract]:System coupling originated in physics. After the coupling of the system, the function and the structure will change correspondingly. The coupling effect of the system is the comprehensive effect of the coordination and excitation between the system structure and the environmental conditions. Therefore, it is very important to study the coupling effect, that is, the coordination of coupling relationship, to improve the productivity of the system. Firstly, the coupling system of ecology, economy and finance in Poyang Lake area is analyzed by system dynamics. The coupling system is divided into population subsystem, ecological subsystem, economic subsystem and financial subsystem, and the coupling system model is established. Based on the historical data of 2005-2012, the coupling system of ecology, economy and finance in Poyang Lake area and city is simulated and the results from 2015 to 2020 are predicted. Secondly, the evaluation index system of ecological, economic and financial coupling system in Poyang Lake region is constructed according to the principle of constructing evaluation index. Based on the simulation data from 2015 to 2020, the index weights are determined by entropy method, and the comprehensive indices of three systems in Poyang Lake area and city are obtained. The results showed that the comprehensive index of ecosystem and financial system in Poyang Lake area was in the third place, and the comprehensive index of ecosystem in Jingdezhen and Yingtan cities was higher than that in the 1.6 cities of economic system composite index. The economic system composite index of the six cities is not much different, Nanchang City ranks first; Nanchang City's financial system composite index is above 0.88, which is far ahead of the other five cities. On this basis, the grey correlation degree is used to analyze the coupling system of ecology, economy and finance in Poyang Lake area and city. Taking the economic system as the reference series, the calculated results show that the correlation degree of the ecosystem in Poyang Lake area is 0.3844 and the correlation degree of the financial system is 0.8519, which indicates that the economy in Poyang Lake area is mainly influenced by finance. The reason is that except Yingtan City, the correlation degree of ecosystem is higher than that of financial system, the correlation degree of financial system is higher than that of ecosystem in the other five cities. Thirdly, using coupling degree model and coupling coordination degree model, the coupling degree and coordination degree of ecological, economic and financial system in Poyang Lake area and urban area from 2015 to 2020 are calculated. According to the criteria of coupling coordination degree, the results show that the coupling system in Poyang Lake area is on the verge of maladjustment, Nanchang City is slightly dysfunctional in 2018-2019, and the others are on the verge of maladjustment. Yingtan City and Jingdezhen City rose from mild disorder to the stage on the verge of maladjustment; Xinyu City and Fuzhou City were at the stage of mild disorder; while Jiujiang City was moderate disorder in 2016, 2017 and 2019, while the rest was on the verge of maladjustment. Finally, according to the analysis results, the paper puts forward some suggestions on the coupling development model of ecological, economic and financial space in Poyang Lake area: first, the coupling development mode of "ecosystem economic system" in Nanchang and Xinyu; The second is the coupling development model of "financial system economic system" in Jingdezhen and Yingtan, and the third is the coupling development model of "ecosystem financial system economic system" in Jiujiang and Fuzhou.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X22;F127;F832.7
本文编号：2454179
[Abstract]:System coupling originated in physics. After the coupling of the system, the function and the structure will change correspondingly. The coupling effect of the system is the comprehensive effect of the coordination and excitation between the system structure and the environmental conditions. Therefore, it is very important to study the coupling effect, that is, the coordination of coupling relationship, to improve the productivity of the system. Firstly, the coupling system of ecology, economy and finance in Poyang Lake area is analyzed by system dynamics. The coupling system is divided into population subsystem, ecological subsystem, economic subsystem and financial subsystem, and the coupling system model is established. Based on the historical data of 2005-2012, the coupling system of ecology, economy and finance in Poyang Lake area and city is simulated and the results from 2015 to 2020 are predicted. Secondly, the evaluation index system of ecological, economic and financial coupling system in Poyang Lake region is constructed according to the principle of constructing evaluation index. Based on the simulation data from 2015 to 2020, the index weights are determined by entropy method, and the comprehensive indices of three systems in Poyang Lake area and city are obtained. The results showed that the comprehensive index of ecosystem and financial system in Poyang Lake area was in the third place, and the comprehensive index of ecosystem in Jingdezhen and Yingtan cities was higher than that in the 1.6 cities of economic system composite index. The economic system composite index of the six cities is not much different, Nanchang City ranks first; Nanchang City's financial system composite index is above 0.88, which is far ahead of the other five cities. On this basis, the grey correlation degree is used to analyze the coupling system of ecology, economy and finance in Poyang Lake area and city. Taking the economic system as the reference series, the calculated results show that the correlation degree of the ecosystem in Poyang Lake area is 0.3844 and the correlation degree of the financial system is 0.8519, which indicates that the economy in Poyang Lake area is mainly influenced by finance. The reason is that except Yingtan City, the correlation degree of ecosystem is higher than that of financial system, the correlation degree of financial system is higher than that of ecosystem in the other five cities. Thirdly, using coupling degree model and coupling coordination degree model, the coupling degree and coordination degree of ecological, economic and financial system in Poyang Lake area and urban area from 2015 to 2020 are calculated. According to the criteria of coupling coordination degree, the results show that the coupling system in Poyang Lake area is on the verge of maladjustment, Nanchang City is slightly dysfunctional in 2018-2019, and the others are on the verge of maladjustment. Yingtan City and Jingdezhen City rose from mild disorder to the stage on the verge of maladjustment; Xinyu City and Fuzhou City were at the stage of mild disorder; while Jiujiang City was moderate disorder in 2016, 2017 and 2019, while the rest was on the verge of maladjustment. Finally, according to the analysis results, the paper puts forward some suggestions on the coupling development model of ecological, economic and financial space in Poyang Lake area: first, the coupling development mode of "ecosystem economic system" in Nanchang and Xinyu; The second is the coupling development model of "financial system economic system" in Jingdezhen and Yingtan, and the third is the coupling development model of "ecosystem financial system economic system" in Jiujiang and Fuzhou.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X22;F127;F832.7
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