新常态下中国经济潜在增长率估算

发布时间：2019-05-23 12:20

【摘要】：当前对经济发展新常态的解读主要是从全国层面来进行的。把握经济发展新常态特征的关键是对潜在增长率进行合理估算和预测。与现有文献不同,本文不仅从全国层面估算潜在增长率,而且还从区域层面估算潜在增长率。本文使用生产函数方法,以ARMA模型为辅助,对中国经济的合理增速进行估算。研究发现:(1)从全国层面来看,未来十年中国经济潜在增长率相对于以往将保持在一个相对较低的水平,为6%左右,这与中央所做出的中国经济发展进入"新常态"的判断相吻合;(2)根据生产函数法,从供给侧来看,新常态下中国潜在经济增长率下降主要源于劳动力成本上升、投资收益率下降带来的资本投入减少以及全要素生产率的贡献下降;(3)虽然从全国层面来看,未来十年中国经济增长率总体上呈现出从高速增长转向中高速增长的下降趋势,但区域层面则呈现出增长率分化的趋势。新常态并不意味着各地区同步进入经济发展新常态。基于长期以来中国全要素生产率处于波动震荡的状况,本文提出相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:At present, the interpretation of the new normal of economic development is mainly carried out from the national level. The key to grasp the characteristics of the new normal of economic development is to estimate and forecast the potential growth rate reasonably. Different from the existing literature, this paper estimates the potential growth rate not only from the national level, but also from the regional level. In this paper, the production function method is used to estimate the reasonable economic growth rate of China with the help of ARMA model. The study found that: (1) from the national level, the potential growth rate of China's economy in the next decade will remain at a relatively low level, at about 6%. This is consistent with the central government's judgment that China's economic development has entered the "new normal". (2) according to the production function method, from the supply side, the decline of potential economic growth rate in China under the new normal is mainly due to the increase of labor cost, the decrease of capital investment and the decrease of total factor productivity caused by the decrease of investment rate of return. (3) although from the national level, China's economic growth rate will generally show a downward trend from high-speed growth to medium-and high-speed growth in the next decade, but the regional level will show a trend of differentiation of growth rate. The new normal does not mean that all regions enter the new normal of economic development at the same time. Based on the fluctuating situation of total factor productivity (TFP) in China for a long time, this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学财经研究院;中央财经大学经济学院;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“中国经济发展新常态的内涵、特征及其演变逻辑研究”(15JZD0011)
【分类号】：F124

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