基于BCA模型的中国经济波动因素的再测算
发布时间：2019-05-26 21:29
【摘要】：文章以动态随机一般均衡模型作为基本分析框架,构建一个带有时变摩擦的实际经济周期(RBC)模型。在考虑经济结构变化的前提下,使用经济周期测度(BCA)模型对1978—2015年我国宏观经济波动特征进行研究和引起波动的因素进行分解,实证结果表明:1993年是我国经济系统结构变化的断点,1978—1992年我国经济波动主要受技术冲击影响,其他的冲击因素具有缓解经济波动的作用;1993—2015年,我国经济波动主要受投资冲击的影响,而技术冲击、劳动冲击和外部冲击也起到部分影响;改革开放以来,我国经济波动源由从单一波动源向多种冲击共同作用的趋势发展。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a real economic cycle (RBC) model with time-varying friction is constructed by using the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model as the basic analysis framework. On the premise of considering the change of economic structure, the (BCA) model of economic cycle measure is used to study the characteristics of macroeconomic fluctuations in China from 1978 to 2015 and decompose the factors causing fluctuations. The empirical results show that 1993 is the breakpoint of the structural change of China's economic system. From 1978 to 1992, the economic fluctuations in China are mainly affected by technological shocks, and other shock factors can alleviate the economic fluctuations. From 1993 to 2015, China's economic fluctuations were mainly affected by investment shocks, while technological shocks, labor shocks and external shocks also played a partial role. Since the reform and opening up, the economic fluctuation source of our country has developed from a single fluctuation source to a variety of shocks.
【作者单位】： 暨南大学深圳旅游学院;四川大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71473169;71473168)
【分类号】：F124.8
，
本文编号：2485648
[Abstract]:In this paper, a real economic cycle (RBC) model with time-varying friction is constructed by using the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model as the basic analysis framework. On the premise of considering the change of economic structure, the (BCA) model of economic cycle measure is used to study the characteristics of macroeconomic fluctuations in China from 1978 to 2015 and decompose the factors causing fluctuations. The empirical results show that 1993 is the breakpoint of the structural change of China's economic system. From 1978 to 1992, the economic fluctuations in China are mainly affected by technological shocks, and other shock factors can alleviate the economic fluctuations. From 1993 to 2015, China's economic fluctuations were mainly affected by investment shocks, while technological shocks, labor shocks and external shocks also played a partial role. Since the reform and opening up, the economic fluctuation source of our country has developed from a single fluctuation source to a variety of shocks.
【作者单位】： 暨南大学深圳旅游学院;四川大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71473169;71473168)
【分类号】：F124.8
，
本文编号：2485648
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