Deerminants of Current Account Balances of Brics

发布时间：2021-03-24 05:15

　　“金砖五国”是由巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非五个世界主要新兴经济体组成的国际合作平台。据世界银行的数据显示,2016年金砖五国的联合GDP占世界GDP总量的22%,充分反映了“金砖”联盟的规模。国际贸易是该组织框架的支柱之一。因此,本文的研究旨在分析金砖国家贸易发展的近期趋势,更具体地说,我们从经验上分析哪些经济因素会影响到金砖五国的经常账户余额,并考察各自的作用机制及影响程度。经常账户余额是反映国家经济运行情况的重要指标,对这一论题展开研究可以让我们更加深刻地认识“金砖五国”的经济发展情况。在全球经济失衡的态势下,理解金砖国家如何发展国际贸易是非常重要的。根据国际货币基金组织2016年发布的报告显示,“金砖五国”中只有中国和俄罗斯存在经常账户盈余。因此,我们试图结合理论模型和实证研究的结果为上述国家制定相应政策,以期改善该国的经济状况。本文实证部分主要基于面板回归模型进行分析,该分析以五个成员国的经常账户指标作为因变量,并根据现有经验研究选取核心解释变量与必要的控制变量。根据我们的分析结果,国内产出增长、货币供应量和实际有效汇率是“金砖五国”经常账户余额的重要决定因素,而贸易开放度... 

【文章来源】：东南大学江苏省 211工程院校 985工程院校 教育部直属院校

【文章页数】：94 页

【学位级别】：硕士

【文章目录】：
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
摘要
ABSTRACT
Chapter 1 Introduction
    1.1 The motivation for the study
        1.1.1 The role of current account balances from the global perspective
        1.1.2 BRICS current account balances, why do they matter?
    1.2 Research questions and objectives
    1.3 Methodology
    1.4 Organization of the thesis
Chapter 2 Literature review
    2.1 Theoretical framework
        2.1.1 Exchange rate
        2.1.2 Income
        2.1.3 Productivity
        2.1.4 Money supply
        2.1.5 Trade openness
    2.2 Empirical literature
        2.2.1 Country-specific research
        2.2.2 Cross-country and panel research
        2.2.3 BRICS –related research
Chapter 3 Trends in economic development and current account balances of BRICS
    3.1 Brazil
        3.1.1 Brazil’s economic and current account development
        3.1.2 Brazil’s trade structure overview
    3.2 Russia
        3.2.1 Russia’s economic and current account development
        3.2.2 Russia’s trade structure overview
    3.3 India
        3.3.1 India’s economic and current account development
        3.3.2 India’s trade structure overview
    3.4 China
        3.4.1 China’s economic and current account development
        3.4.2 China’s trade structure overview
    3.5 South Africa
        3.5.1 South Africa’s economic and current account development
        3.5.2 South Africa’s trade structure overview
    3.6 Summary
Chapter 4 Methodology and Estimation results
    4.1 Data
    4.2 Model specification
    4.3 Units root test
    4.4 Empirical analysis and results
Chapter 5 Summary and conclusions
    5.1 Summary
    5.2 Conclusions
    5.3 Policy Implications
    5.4 Areas for further study
List of References



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