International Oil Price Security WANA Economy

  本文关键词：世界经济变化对中东经济的影响，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

世界经济变化对中东经济的影响

Impacts of the Global Economic Changes on the Middle-East Economy

[1]

JIANG Mingxin （Jiang Mingxin, Institute of West-Asian and African Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences）

[1]中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所

文章摘要：2014年世界经济发生了许多重大转变，全球经济复苏态势的逐步巩固、各主要经济体经济增速的分化、美国货币政策正常化以及国际油价暴跌，都对西亚北非经济产生重大影响。但由于世界经济变化传导的滞后效应，尤其是国际期货市场油价的滞后效应，西亚北非经济在2014年的大多数时间里基本延续着2013年的大体走势．更多受到国际油价缓慢下降和急剧变化的地区安全局势的影响。而在2015年全球经济增长下行压力增强、油价低位徘徊、地区安全问题复杂化和长期化、美联储加息预期日益增强的情况下，2015—2016年西亚北非总体经济增长趋势日趋负面。

Abstr：The world economy has undergone many significant changes since 2014, such as the consolidation of global economic recovery, the differentiation of economic growth among the major economies, the US normalization of monetary policy as well as the slump of international oil prices, all these factors have made and will make great impacts on the MENA economy. However, due to the lagged effects of the world economic changes, especially that of the oil price in the international futures market, the MENA economies followed by and large their trend in 2013 during most of time in 2014, namely, most influenced by the slow decline of international oil price and rapid change of the regional security situation. In 2015, as the downside risks to the world economy become more pronounced, and that the slump of international oil prices continues, the regional security issues become more complex and protracted, the Fed is expected to raise its policy rates, the outlook of MENA economic growth in 2015-16 becomes increasingly negative.

文章关键词：

Keyword：:International Oil Price Security WANA Economy

作者信息：会员可见

  本文关键词：世界经济变化对中东经济的影响，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。