城镇灾害应急装备需求预测模型研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 06:08

  本文关键词：城镇灾害应急装备需求预测模型研究　出处：《工业建筑》2016年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

  更多相关文章： 城镇灾害 应急装备 需求预测 随机过程

【摘要】：目前,我国城镇化进程不断加快,城镇的防灾减灾问题越来越受到社会的重视,应急装备需求也日益增强。如何建立科学有效的应急装备需求预测模型,对防治城镇灾害具有重要的意义。基于概率论的方法研究了城镇灾害应急装备需求预测模型,并讨论了在不同环境因子下,应急装备需求量的计算。利用仿真软件MATLAB对应急装备需求进行了计算仿真。仿真结果表明:该需求模型可以较好地对城镇灾害应急装备需求进行预测。
[Abstract]:At present, the process of urbanization in China is accelerating, the problem of disaster prevention and mitigation in cities and towns is paid more and more attention to by the society, and the demand for emergency equipment is increasing day by day. How to establish a scientific and effective model for forecasting the demand of emergency equipment. It is of great significance to prevent and cure urban disasters. Based on probability theory, this paper studies the forecasting model of emergency equipment demand of urban disasters, and discusses the different environmental factors. The requirements of emergency equipment are calculated and simulated by the simulation software MATLAB. The simulation results show that:. The demand model can predict the demand of emergency equipment for urban disasters.
【作者单位】： 国家安全生产监督管理总局通信信息中心;
【基金】：“十二五”国家科技支撑计划课题(2015BAK14B03)
【分类号】：X4
【正文快照】： 统计显示,2013年我国的名义城镇化率为53.73%,全国31个省区市中除上海(89.6%)、北京(86.3%)、天津(82.01%)等19个省区市名义城镇化率超过50%外,其他12个省市名义城镇化率大都在50%以下,未来5~10年,我国大部分省区市都处于城镇化快速推进阶段的“加速期”[1-2]。但随着城镇化建，

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