基于历史轨道数据的空间碎片环境建模研究

发布时间：2018-01-23 20:40

  本文关键词： 两行轨道根数 空间碎片 环境建模 T-H方程 误差传播 空域划分 空间密度 速度分布 碰撞流量　出处：《国防科学技术大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：空间碎片环境建模是一项复杂的、综合性的工程项目,是保障在轨航天器的安全运行,维护我国空间安全,保护空间环境必须研究的课题。本文结合历史轨道数据,对空间碎片环境建模中的关键技术问题进行了研究,并对观测数据的误差传播进行了分析。论文的主要研究成果如下:基于T-H方程研究了椭圆轨道初始误差传播。利用相对运动理论研究初始误差传播,将轨道预报误差看作空间目标预报位置相对真实位置的相对运动。基于T-H方程推导了同时适用于圆轨道和椭圆轨道的显式误差传播函数,得到了圆轨道和椭圆轨道上初始误差的传播规律。并对椭圆轨道近地点处误差传播的非高斯特性进行了分析与修正。确定了等面积空域划分方案及空间单元编号规则和结构体设计。建立了等面积空域划分方法的数学模型,并结合论文中采用的划分方案对空间单元的编号规则进行了详细的说明,对用于存储空间单元信息的结构体进行了设计。研究了空间碎片的空间密度模型与计算方法。在假设空间碎片的位置关于轨道高度、纬度及经度的分布独立的基础上,对空间密度函数进行了研究,得到了空间碎片在高度、纬度和经度上的停留概率函数,并根据工程应用对空间密度函数进行简化。对LEO区域和GEO区域的空间密度进行验证,得到了与MASTER2005模型类似的结果。研究了空间碎片的碰撞流量模型与计算方法。空间碎片的碰撞流量是目标轨道在一个运行周期内遭受到的空间碎片的碰撞统计,首先对一个空间单元内碰撞流量的计算方法进行了研究,然后扩展到整个目标轨道碰撞流量的计算。并对空间目标在当地水平面内的碰撞几何进行了分析,得到了在当地水平面内碰撞方位角的计算公式。对LEO区域的国际空间站和GEO区域的银河通信卫星受到的空间碎片碰撞流量进行了数值仿真。对空间碎片碰撞流量的应用进行了研究。基于T-H方程研究了空间碎片实际位置的散布情况,得到实际位置散布在以预报位置为中心的误差椭球内的结论,并对未来空间碎片瞬时分布进行短期预测,验证T-H方程用于轨道预报的可行性。详细分析了美俄卫星碰撞事件对LEO区域空间碎片环境的影响,验证了空间碎片环境模型的实用性。
[Abstract]:Space debris environment modeling is a complex and comprehensive engineering project, which is to ensure the safety operation of orbiting spacecraft and to maintain the space security of our country. This paper studies the key technology of space debris environment modeling based on the historical orbit data. The main research results are as follows: the initial error propagation of elliptical orbit is studied based on T-H equation and the initial error propagation is studied by relative motion theory. The orbit prediction error is regarded as the relative motion of the relative real position of the space target. Based on the T-H equation, the explicit error propagation function is derived, which is suitable for both circular orbit and elliptical orbit. The propagation law of initial error in circular orbit and elliptical orbit is obtained. The non-#china_person0# characteristic of error propagation at perigee of elliptical orbit is analyzed and corrected. The plan of equal area space division and the number of space unit are determined. Rules and structure design. The mathematical model of equal area space division method is established. Combined with the partition scheme adopted in the paper, the numbering rules of space units are explained in detail. The space density model and calculation method of space debris are studied. The orbital height is assumed to be the position of space debris. On the basis of the independent distribution of latitude and longitude, the spatial density function is studied, and the retention probability functions of space debris in altitude, latitude and longitude are obtained. The spatial density function is simplified according to the engineering application. The spatial density of LEO region and GEO region is verified. The result is similar to that of MASTER2005 model. The collision flow model and calculation method of space debris are studied. The collision flux of space debris is the space that the target orbit suffers in one operating cycle. Collision statistics of debris. First, the calculation method of collision flow in a space unit is studied, and then extended to the calculation of collision flow of the whole target orbit, and the collision geometry of space target in the local horizontal plane is analyzed. The formula for calculating the azimuth of collision in the local horizontal plane is obtained. The space debris collision flow from the International Space Station in the LEO region and the Galactic Communications Satellite in the GEO region is numerically simulated. The application of collision flow is studied. The dispersion of space debris is studied based on T-H equation. The conclusion that the actual position is scattered in the error ellipsoid centered on the prediction position is obtained, and the short-term prediction of the instantaneous distribution of space debris in the future is made. The feasibility of applying T-H equation to orbit prediction is verified. The effects of the collision events between the United States and Russia on the space debris environment in the LEO region are analyzed in detail, and the practicability of the space debris environment model is verified.
【学位授予单位】：国防科学技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：V528;X738
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本文编号：1458188