基于MODIS数据和GWLR的甘肃省火灾风险模型与区划

发布时间：2018-01-24 03:23

  本文关键词： 火灾风险 GWLR 火险因子 火险区划 甘肃省　出处：《遥感技术与应用》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：利用甘肃省2000~2014年MCD45A1数据产品,建立了火灾风险评估的GWLR和BLR模型,从省域和较长时间尺度上进行火险风险的模拟,并进行火险区划。研究表明:GWLR比BLR模型的AICc值更小,可靠性、区分性更强,更适于火灾建模。甘肃省内火点多集中于坡度低于25°,海拔介于1 000~3 000m,坡向介于0°~90°,年均温3℃~11℃,降水量200~400mm,距离公路更近的区域,以及NDVI0.6或NDVI0.3,0.2GVMI0.4的区域。将甘肃省划分为极高火险区、高火险区、中火险区、低火险区4类火险区。气温、地表温度、NDVI、距离和高程对于甘肃省火灾的发生具有空间上的影响。通过运算形成火灾影响因素空间分布图,可为防火措施的科学实施提供参考。
[Abstract]:Based on the MCD45A1 data products from 2000 to 2014 in Gansu Province, the GWLR and BLR models of fire risk assessment were established, and the fire risk was simulated on a provincial scale and a long time scale. The study shows that the AICc value of the BLR model is smaller than that of the BLR model, and it is more reliable and distinguishable, so it is more suitable for fire modeling. Most of the fire points in Gansu Province focus on the slope below 25 掳. The altitude is between 1 000 ~ 3 000 m, the slope direction is between 0 掳and 90 掳, the annual mean temperature is 3 鈩，

本文编号：1459038