我国南海海域的海运安全评价

发布时间：2018-01-25 21:37

本文关键词： 南海安全评价理想区间遗传算法　出处：《大连海事大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：海运对一国对外贸易的开展具有重要作用。南海是我国的边缘海,也是我国与亚洲其他国家、欧洲、非洲国家开展海上运输的必经之路。长期以来,我国关注重点在马六甲海峡海域,对南海海域的研究不多。2012年后,我国与周边国家在南海问题上屡屡发生冲突,南海局势一再紧张,已经开始影响该水域海上运输的正常开展。这篇文字正是基于此背景写作,文中考虑了政治因素等非传统因素对海运安全的影响,具有较强的时代感。文章首先介绍了国内外对海上安全问题的研究现状。接下来,以南海争端的核心区域——南沙群岛海域为研究对象,分别从地理位置、气象水文条件、航道状况、船舶交通状况、地缘政治状况、海盗和恐怖主义袭击七个方而,介绍了研究对象的情况,并为后文的安全评价打下基础。在第三章,问卷介绍了本文的评价模型。即使用改进的专家调查法得出指标权重,此处的改进是用遗传算法对专家的权重进行优化,可以有效提高判断矩阵的一致性。然后使用理想区间法得出评价对象隶属标准等级。第四章用模型对南海群岛的海运安全进行了评价,结果表明,在2012年1月～2013年4月这段时间内,前3个月的安全等级为“中等”,其后一直保持“不稳定”状态,这与事实是相符的,说明模型有一定的可取之处。最后,结合南海区域的现状,作者提出了妥善处理与周边国家关系、积极应对霸权主义影响、加强南海海域的海事信息服务、完善南海海域的基础设施,和合作降低非传统风险六项建议。
[Abstract]:Maritime transport plays an important role in the development of a country's foreign trade. The South China Sea is not only the marginal sea of our country, but also the only way for China to carry out maritime transport with other Asian countries, Europe and Africa for a long time. Our focus is on the sea area of the Malacca Strait, and there are few studies on the South China Sea. Since 2012, there have been frequent conflicts between China and the neighboring countries on the issue of the South China Sea, and the situation in the South China Sea has been tense again and again. It is based on this background that the article has taken into account the influence of non-traditional factors such as political factors on maritime security and has a strong sense of the times. Firstly, this paper introduces the research status of maritime safety issues at home and abroad. Then, taking the Nansha Islands, the core area of the South China Sea dispute, as the research object, respectively from the geographical location, meteorological and hydrological conditions. The waterway condition, ship traffic condition, geopolitical situation, piracy and terrorist attack are introduced, and the research object is introduced, which lays the foundation for the security evaluation in the following chapters. Chapter three. The questionnaire introduces the evaluation model of this paper, that is, using the improved expert survey method to get the index weight, the improvement here is to optimize the weight of the expert using genetic algorithm. The consistency of the judgment matrix can be improved effectively. Then the grade of the evaluation object is obtained by using the ideal interval method. Chapter 4th evaluates the maritime safety of the South China Sea archipelago by using the model, and the result shows that. During the period from January 2012 to April 2013, the security level for the first three months was "medium" and remained "unstable" since then, which is consistent with the facts. Finally, combined with the current situation of the South China Sea region, the author proposed to properly deal with the relationship with the neighboring countries, actively respond to hegemonism, and strengthen maritime information services in the South China Sea. Improve the South China Sea infrastructure, and cooperation to reduce non-traditional risk six recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U698

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