基于模糊故障树方法的船舶锚泊安全分析

发布时间：2018-01-27 04:48

本文关键词： 锚泊安全模糊故障树方法模糊决策模糊综合评价　出处：《大连海事大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：船舶在进行检疫、候潮、锚地过驳或避风时都要在锚泊时进行,因此,锚泊期间的船舶安全也就成为了船舶营运安全中必不可少的重要环节之一。船舶的设计与建造趋势使得船舶更加大型化,船舶载重吨增加。随着新船数量的增加,老旧船舶由于性能无法满足现代航运的要求逐渐淘汰、弃用,加之航运市场尚未回暖,一些船舶处于停运状态,加重了锚地负担。锚地也因此愈发拥挤,导致船舶锚泊危险程度的提升。对于锚泊安全的研究显得十分重要,各国专家学者对锚泊安全问题做了大量研究,提出了很多见解和研究思路,其目的就是为了提升锚泊安全程度。在参考前人研究成果的基础上,结合相关文献,本文将故障树方法引入锚泊安全研究内容当中,通过分析可能对锚泊安全产生影响的因素,以锚泊不安全状态为顶上事件,以可能的影响因素为中间事件和底事件,建立一个船舶锚泊安全状态的故障树。在定性分析的过程中,文中使用下行法求得故障树最小割集。通过向专家学者发放问卷,调查统计故障概率级别与概率判定准确度。随后,根据统计结果将模糊数学方法与故障树方法结合,将底事件发生概率及其对顶事件发生的影响进行定量分析,最后得出顶事件的发生概率。然后对各个底事件的影响重要度进行了排序,得出对锚泊安全影响较大的事件集合,并据此对锚泊安全做出了一些有针对性建议,为锚泊安全分析提供了一种思路。为验证模糊故障树方法在锚泊安全分析中的可行性,本文在模糊综合评判的基础上加入故障树分析法,利用重要度法赋予底事件权重,通过模糊决策,计算出最容易导致锚泊事故的事件。本文的研究的计算过程为船舶驾驶员保障锚泊安全提供了依据,结论与建议为保障锚泊安全提供了一个参考。
[Abstract]:Ships in quarantine, waiting for tide, Anchorage over barge or avoid the wind should be carried out at the anchor, therefore. The ship safety during the period of mooring has become one of the essential and important links in the ship operation safety. The trend of ship design and construction makes the ship larger. With the increase of the number of new ships, the old and old ships can not meet the requirements of modern shipping gradually eliminated, abandoned, coupled with the shipping market has not yet recovered, some ships are out of service. Increased the burden of Anchorage, Anchorage is also becoming more crowded, leading to the increase of ship anchoring risk. For the study of Anchorage safety is very important, many experts and scholars have done a lot of research on the problem of Anchorage safety. Put forward a lot of ideas and research ideas, its purpose is to improve the degree of safety of mooring. On the basis of previous research results, combined with relevant literature. In this paper, the fault tree method is introduced into the research content of anchor safety. By analyzing the factors that may affect the safety of anchor, the unsafe state of anchor is the top event. Taking possible factors as intermediate events and bottom events, a fault tree of ship mooring safety state is established. In the process of qualitative analysis. In this paper, the minimum cut set of fault tree is obtained by downlink method. By sending questionnaires to experts and scholars, the probability level of fault and the accuracy of probability determination are investigated. According to the statistical results, the fuzzy mathematics method and the fault tree method are combined to quantitatively analyze the probability of bottom event and its influence on the occurrence of top event. Finally, the occurrence probability of the top event is obtained. Then the influence importance degree of each bottom event is sorted, and the event set which has a great influence on the anchor safety is obtained, and based on this, some targeted suggestions are made on the anchor safety. In order to verify the feasibility of the fuzzy fault tree method in the anchor safety analysis, this paper adds the fault tree analysis method on the basis of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The importance method is used to give weight to the bottom event, and through fuzzy decision, the events which are most likely to lead to the anchoring accident are calculated. The calculation process of this paper provides the basis for the ship driver to ensure the safety of the anchor. Conclusions and suggestions provide a reference for the safety of mooring.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U698

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