DFTA在建筑施工动态安全管理中的应用研究

发布时间：2018-01-29 06:44

本文关键词： 建筑施工动态安全管理 DFTA（动态事故树）二元决策图 Markov链　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：现代安全管理是一个动态的管理过程，强调事故诱发因素之间的时序性、关联性和危害因素随时间推移导致事故发生概率大小的动态变化等。建筑施工安全管理更是如此，因为人、机、料、法、环的动态变化随着施工过程的展开都更为明显，每个施工项目和同一个项目的不同施工阶段都存在不同的风险因素。随着社会经济的飞速发展，我国建筑业也取得了飞跃进步，但是在建筑业发展的同时，出现了大量安全生产事故，造成了巨大的人员伤害和经济损失，使建筑安全管理逐渐成为人们关注的焦点。究其原因，主要是我国建筑业目前实行的安全管理大多仍是传统的、静态的，缺少有效的动态管理手段。要保证建筑施工全过程安全，就必须首先做好整个建筑施工过程中每个施工环节的事故类型辨识、做事故发生可能性的预测及对预测结果进行评价，并据此制定和实施安全技术或安全管理措施。然而，以事故树分析等为代表的传统的事故风险预测方法或安全评价方法却难以解决动态管理所强调的危害因素之间的时序性和因素之间的关联性以及危害程度随时间变化的问题，，无法客观地反映施工过程中那些可能出现的伤亡事故的实际风险程度。能否采用能更客观地反映事故风险程度的评价方法这一点成为业内人士的共识。而具有优先与门、顺序门、触发门等结构的动态事故树以及动态事故树分析方法尤为引人关注。为说明动态事故树分析能够在一定程度上克服静态安全管理的弊端，以建筑施工现场最为频发的事故类型——“从脚手架坠落”事故为例，实施动态事故树建模、利用Markov链追踪并计算事故发生的概率，并将此结果与用静态事故树分析方法分析同样问题的结果进行比较，用以说明该方法较之以往传统的、静态的事故风险评价方法都更接近实际，据此制定和实施的建筑安全管理对策或技术对策才更有针对性和实效性。
[Abstract]:Modern safety management is a dynamic management process, which emphasizes the timing of accident inducing factors. Correlation and hazard factors lead to the dynamic change of accident probability over time. The construction safety management is more so, because of people, machine, material, method. The dynamic changes of the ring are more obvious with the construction process, each construction project and the same project in different construction stages have different risk factors. With the rapid development of social economy. China's construction industry has also made great progress, but in the construction industry development, there have been a large number of accidents in production safety, resulting in huge human injury and economic losses. The main reason is that most of the safety management in our construction industry is still traditional, static and lack of effective dynamic management methods. In order to ensure the safety of the whole process of building construction, it is necessary to identify the accident types of each construction link in the whole construction process, to predict the possibility of the accident and to evaluate the forecast results. And to develop and implement safety technology or safety management measures accordingly. The traditional method of accident risk prediction or safety evaluation, such as accident tree analysis, is difficult to solve the time series and the correlation between the factors emphasized by dynamic management, as well as the degree of harm over time. The question of change. Can not objectively reflect the actual risk degree of those possible casualty accidents in the construction process. It has become the consensus of the industry to adopt the evaluation method which can reflect the accident risk degree more objectively. With the door. Sequential gates, trigger gates and dynamic accident trees are particularly interesting. In order to explain that dynamic accident tree analysis can overcome the drawbacks of static safety management to a certain extent, take the accident type "falling from scaffold", which is the most frequent accident type in construction site, as an example. The dynamic accident tree modeling is implemented and the probability of the accident is traced and calculated by using Markov chain. The results are compared with the results of the static accident tree analysis method. This method is used to show that the static accident risk assessment method is more close to the reality than the traditional one, and the construction safety management countermeasures or technical countermeasures formulated and implemented on the basis of these methods are more pertinent and effective.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU714

【引证文献】