小流域山洪灾害风险性评价研究

发布时间：2018-02-06 06:46

本文关键词： 山洪灾害小流域风险性评价 GIS 易损性危险性　出处：《长江科学院》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：山洪灾害是我国严重的自然灾害之一,山洪灾害造成的经济损失和人员伤亡严重,严重制约山丘区经济社会可持续发展。大量事实证明,山洪以其突发性强、成灾快和破坏力大等特点,难以进行预测预报等相关研究,但山洪风险性分析可以对洪灾不确定性进行客观描述,山洪的风险性评价研究逐渐成为热点。本研究主要利用GIS技术,结合层次分析的方法,通过收集西南山丘区山洪灾害易发典型区鲁甸县相关资料,提取典型小流域,建立山洪灾害风险性评价模型,从山洪灾害危险性、易损性和风险性三个层面进行评价,主要结论包括以下几个方面:(1)典型区山洪灾害风险理论:小流域山洪灾害风险理论是由山洪灾害危险性和易损性组成,结合该区域概况,以及实地走访测量,综合考虑典型区风险区划研究。(2)研究区山洪灾害危险性评价研究:危险性评价主要从研究区孕灾环境和致灾因子两方面进行评价,利用GIS的空间分析方法,建立包括地质条件、坡度和起伏度、年均降雨量、植被覆盖度和人类活动因子等孕灾环境指标体系。通过搜集资料,结合当地实际情况对评价指标进行量化分级并赋值,其中各指标的对孕灾环境贡献程度以权重值来表现,利用层次分析法(AHP)进行专家打分得到权重值。致灾因子通过收集研究区年均降雨量和洪水频次进行量化赋值处理,最终得孕灾环境和致灾因子的指标结果,利用GIS空间叠加功能,实现研究区危险性评价,最终划分4个等级高危险区、危险区,中危险区和低危险区。(3)研究区山洪灾害易损性评价研究:易损性评价主要从两个方面进行分析和评价。本着“以人为本”的前提,从人口易损性和经济易损性进行研究,本研究选取处于西南部山区的不发达地带,考虑承灾体特征属性,主要选取人口和耕地进行分析。最终把研究区易损性划分4个等级:高易损性、中易损性,易损性和低易损性。(4)研究区山洪风险性研究:在危险性和易损性计算的基础上,通过对不同等级赋值,利用风险性(R)=危险性(H)x易损性(V)公式,将研究区划分4个等级,高风险区、中风险区、风险区和低风险区。(5)根据风险区划分的结果,提出科学可行的防治策略和措施,同时对无资料地区山洪过程进行探讨。
[Abstract]:Mountain torrents are one of the serious natural disasters in our country. The economic losses and casualties caused by mountain torrents are serious, which seriously restrict the sustainable development of economy and society in hilly areas. A large number of facts have proved that mountain torrents are suddenly strong. It is difficult to carry on the related research such as prediction and forecast because of the characteristics of quick and destructive disaster, but the analysis of mountain torrents risk can objectively describe the uncertainty of flood. The risk assessment of mountain torrents has gradually become a hot topic. This study mainly uses GIS technology, combined with the analytic hierarchy process method, through collecting the relevant data of Ludian County, a typical area where mountain torrents are prone to disasters in the southwest hilly area. A typical small watershed was extracted and a model was established to evaluate the risk of mountain torrents from three aspects: risk vulnerability and risk. The main conclusions include the following several aspects: the theory of mountain torrents risk in typical areas: the theory of mountain torrents risk in small watershed is composed of the risk and vulnerability of mountain torrents, combined with the general situation of the region. And field survey, comprehensive consideration of the risk regionalization of typical areas. 2) study on the risk assessment of mountain torrents in the study area: the risk assessment mainly from two aspects of disaster environment and disaster factors in the study area. By using the spatial analysis method of GIS, the disaster environment index system including geological condition, slope and fluctuation, average annual rainfall, vegetation coverage and human activity factors were established. Combined with the actual situation of the local evaluation indicators are quantitatively graded and assigned, in which the contribution of each index to the disaster environment is represented by the weight value. Using AHP (Analytic hierarchy process) to score experts to get the weight value. The disaster factors are quantified by collecting the average annual rainfall and flood frequency in the study area. Finally obtained the disaster environment and disaster factors index results, using the GIS space superposition function to achieve the risk assessment of the study area, and finally divided into 4 high risk areas, dangerous areas. Study on vulnerability evaluation of mountain torrents in the study area: vulnerability assessment is mainly carried out from two aspects, and based on the premise of "people-oriented". Based on the study of population vulnerability and economic vulnerability, this study selected the underdeveloped areas in the southwest mountain area, and considered the characteristics of disaster bearing bodies. Finally, the vulnerability of the study area is divided into four levels: high vulnerability, middle vulnerability. Vulnerability and low vulnerability. 4) study on the risk of mountain torrents in the study area: based on the calculation of risk and vulnerability, different grades are assigned. The study area is divided into 4 grades, high risk area, middle risk area, middle risk area and low risk area. The scientific and feasible control strategies and measures are put forward, and the mountain torrents process in the areas without data is discussed at the same time.
【学位授予单位】：长江科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：X43

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