列控中心风险分析研究

发布时间：2018-02-12 16:39

本文关键词： 列控中心风险分析 HAZOP分析 XYZ/E 模糊综合评判　出处：《西南交通大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着高速铁路的蓬勃发展,原来基于技术规章制度来保障行车安全的管理方法,越来越没办法满足日益增长的安全管理需求。铁道部办公厅于2012年在全路推行安全风险管理,列控中心作为列控系统地面信号控制的关键系统,对其进行风险分析显得尤为重要。风险分析包括危害识别和风险估计两个过程。本文首先通过对列控中心的组成结构、功能需求、工作状态进行分析,对应建立了列控中心的参考模型、功能分层模型和状态转移模型,然后依照HAZOP方法,对这三种类型模型依次进行分析节点、要素、设计意图、引导词和发生原因的分析,得出其危害日志表,并对状态转移模型中的非正常状态进行半马尔可夫过程分析。通过对顺序图基本语法和基于XYZ/E的顺序图语义进行定义,对描述语言进行逻辑求反运算,可以识别出程序执行过程中的危害。以轨道电路编码为例,将其识别出的危害与HAZOP方法得出的结果进行对比,表明该方法识别结果更为全面。为对识别出的危害进行风险估计,本文借鉴欧洲铁路行业标准中的频率等级划分方法,并结合我国相关法规对事故严重等级的划分原则,建立了6×5风险矩阵。进一步运用模糊综合评判方法,构建了我国铁路信号系统后果严重度评价的因素集和评判集,对评判中用到的权重先采用模糊聚类分析先得出专家集中权重,再结合专家打分计算出因素权重,并以站内轨道电路编码错误的危害进行实例分析。最后,结合专家打分法得出的频率等级,依据风险矩阵,得出危害风险等级。基于以上的风险估计方法,在VC++6.0平台上完成了列控中心风险估计系统的初步研发,以期用于数量较大的危害事件的风险估计计算。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of high-speed railway, the management method based on technical rules and regulations to ensure the safety of traffic is becoming more and more difficult to meet the increasing demand for safety management. In 2012, the General Office of the Ministry of Railways implemented safety risk management throughout the railway line. As the key system of ground signal control of train control system, it is very important to analyze the risk of train control center. Risk analysis includes two processes: hazard identification and risk estimation. Firstly, by analyzing the structure, function requirement and working state of the train control center, the reference model of the train control center is established. Function stratification model and state transition model, then according to the HAZOP method, analyze the node, elements, design intention, guiding words and cause of occurrence of the three types of models in turn, and obtain the hazard log table. The abnormal state in the state transition model is analyzed by semi-Markov process. By defining the basic syntax of sequence diagram and the semantics of sequence diagram based on XYZ/E, the logic inverse operation of description language can be used to identify the harm in the process of program execution. Compared with the results obtained by HAZOP method, the result of the method is more comprehensive. In order to estimate the risk of the identified hazards, this paper draws lessons from the frequency classification method in European railway industry standards, and combines with the principles of classification of accident severity grades in the relevant laws and regulations of our country. The risk matrix of 6 脳 5 is established, and the factor set and evaluation set of consequence severity of railway signal system in China are constructed by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The weight used in the evaluation is first obtained by fuzzy clustering analysis, then the factor weight is calculated by combining with the expert scoring, and the harm of the coding error of the track circuit in the station is analyzed by an example. According to the risk matrix, the hazard risk grade is obtained by combining the frequency grade obtained by the expert scoring method. Based on the above risk estimation methods, the risk estimation system of train control center is developed on the platform of VC 6.0, which is expected to be used to estimate the risk of a large number of hazard events.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U298;U283.2

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