沿海建筑物地震和海啸灾害风险分析与保险管理

发布时间：2018-02-21 02:00

本文关键词： 沿海建筑物地震灾害海啸灾害风险分析保险费率计算　出处：《大连理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：沿海城市作为区域社会、经济、文化的中心,在社会经济发展中占有举足轻重的地位,同时沿海城市也是自然灾害易发和频发区域,进行综合风险评估对城市防灾减灾、救灾能力、恢复重建决策和多灾害保险等方面具有重要意义。地震和海啸都是典型的发生概率小但破坏力大的自然灾害活动,地震灾害直接经济损失评估研究已经形成较为稳定的、系统的方法；海啸灾害损失评估研究相对较少,综合地震和海啸灾害的损失评估更少。本文对地震和海啸灾害中建筑物的损失估计进行分析。风险管理是处理潜在风险损失的计划和安排,是一个不断发展变化的过程,贯穿于灾害损失发生前后。近年来,自然灾害风险管理的手段越来越多样化,其中经济金融手段起到越来越重要的作用,特别是巨灾保险在灾后重建中发挥了巨大的作用,为综合自然灾害风险管理提供了有效的措施。多灾种保险是未来发展的新趋势,本文以地震和海啸灾害为例,研究多灾害保险管理。本文主要内容分为两部分。第一部分是地震和海啸灾害风险分析。其中第二章介绍地震风险评估和风险管理的现状,简单介绍建筑物地震灾害损失评估方法和风险管理中的金融手段。第三章对海啸灾害风险进行分析：先分析海啸灾害特点；然后通过分析建筑物破坏形式和海啸荷载总结各类建筑物破坏特征；最后根据灾后调查数据建立了各类型建筑物海啸易损性矩阵。第四章是地震和海啸损失估计,首先通过借鉴地震损失估计方法和分析海啸损失的影响因素建立建筑物海啸直接经济损失估计概率模型；接着量化局地海啸中建筑物震后破坏等级对其后海啸灾害的影响,建立了地震和海啸共同损失估计模型；最后以多层砖砌体结构为例,分析比较了地震、海啸、地震和海啸相互独立以及海啸作为地震次生灾害时的总损失。为地震海啸损失估计提供一种简易快速的估计方法,为风险区灾害预测、减灾管理和多灾害风险评估和保险计算提供依据。第二部分是地震和海啸保险。第五章首先介绍巨灾保险的性质和发展现状,根据现代风险可保性理论,从市场供需求、风险可测性、政府参与和风险转移四方面讨论了地震和海啸灾害的可保性；然后介绍了保险费率的一般计算方法；接着建立地震和海啸保险的费率精算模型,着重分析了绝对免赔率和相对免赔率下费率的计算；最后给出算例分别计算设置不同免赔率时,地震保险、海啸保险、地震和海啸共同保险的费率。
[Abstract]:As the center of regional society, economy and culture, coastal cities play an important role in the development of social economy. At the same time, coastal cities are also prone to and frequent natural disasters. Disaster response capabilities, recovery and reconstruction decisions, and multi-hazard insurance are important. Earthquakes and tsunamis are typical natural disaster activities that have a low probability of occurrence but are highly destructive. The research on direct economic loss assessment of earthquake disaster has formed a relatively stable and systematic method, while the research on tsunami disaster loss assessment has been relatively few. The damage assessment of comprehensive earthquake and tsunami disaster is less. This paper analyzes the damage estimation of buildings in earthquake and tsunami disaster. Risk management is the plan and arrangement to deal with the potential risk loss. It is a developing process, which runs through the disaster loss. In recent years, the means of natural disaster risk management have become more and more diversified. Among them, economic and financial means play an increasingly important role, especially catastrophe insurance plays a great role in post-disaster reconstruction, which provides effective measures for comprehensive natural disaster risk management. Multi-disaster insurance is a new trend in the future. In this paper, the earthquake and tsunami disaster as an example, the study of multi-disaster insurance management. The main content of this paper is divided into two parts. The first part is earthquake and tsunami disaster risk analysis. The second chapter introduces the current situation of earthquake risk assessment and risk management. This paper briefly introduces the methods of building earthquake disaster loss assessment and the financial means of risk management. Chapter three analyzes the risk of tsunami disaster: firstly, it analyzes the characteristics of tsunami disaster; Then, by analyzing the damage form of buildings and tsunami load, the damage characteristics of various kinds of buildings are summarized. Finally, according to the data of post-disaster survey, the tsunami vulnerability matrix of various types of buildings is established. Chapter 4th is the estimation of earthquake and tsunami losses. First, by using the method of earthquake loss estimation and analyzing the influencing factors of tsunami loss, the probability model of direct economic loss estimation of building tsunami is established, and then the influence of damage grade of buildings in local tsunami on subsequent tsunami disaster is quantified. Finally, taking the multi-story brick masonry structure as an example, the earthquake and tsunami are analyzed and compared. Earthquake and tsunami are independent of each other and the total loss of tsunami is the secondary disaster of earthquake. It provides a simple and fast method to estimate the loss of earthquake and tsunami, which can be used to predict the disaster in risk area. Disaster reduction management and multi-disaster risk assessment and insurance calculation provide the basis. The second part is earthquake and tsunami insurance. Chapter 5th first introduces the nature and development of catastrophe insurance, according to the modern theory of risk insurability, from the market supply and demand, risk measurability, Government involvement and risk transfer discussed the insurability of earthquake and tsunami disasters; then introduced the general calculation of insurance rates; and then established an actuarial model of rates for earthquake and tsunami insurance, The calculation of the rates under absolute and relative immunity rates is emphatically analyzed, and finally, the rates of earthquake insurance, tsunami insurance, earthquake and tsunami co-insurance are calculated with examples.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X43

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