基于FTA-AHP的铁路安全风险综合评估方法

发布时间：2018-02-22 07:32

本文关键词： 铁路系统故障树分析层次分析安全风险综合评估　出处：《中国铁道科学》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：针对单独应用故障树分析法(FTA)或者层次分析法(AHP)进行安全风险评估存在评估结果片面的问题,将FTA方法与AHP方法相结合,研究设计基于FTA-AHP的铁路安全风险综合评估方法。用FTA方法确定目标风险事件的原因事件,构建FTA模型;对FTA模型中的基本原因事件分类归纳,建立AHP模型;对AHP模型准则层和指标层因素的重要性进行两两比较,构建各层的判断矩阵;将通过一致性检验的各层判断矩阵中的特征向量作为该层对应因素的权重向量,并结合因素的安全状态评分,得到上一层对应因素的安全状态评分;通过逐层计算各因素的安全状态评分,最终实现对分析目标安全风险的综合评估。以高速列车制动系统的安全风险综合评估为例,验证了方法的可行性和有效性。该方法既可以分析导致铁路系统故障的原因及其影响程度,又可以对整体系统的安全状态进行综合评估,更全面反映系统的安全风险状态。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem of one-sided assessment results in safety risk assessment by using fault tree analysis (FTAA) or analytic hierarchy process (AHP) alone, the FTA method is combined with AHP method. This paper studies and designs a comprehensive evaluation method of railway safety risk based on FTA-AHP, uses FTA method to determine the cause events of target risk events, constructs FTA model, classifies and induces the basic cause events in FTA model, and establishes AHP model. This paper compares the importance of the factors in the criterion layer and the index layer of the AHP model, constructs the judgment matrix of each layer, and takes the eigenvector in the judgement matrix of each layer that passes the consistency test as the weight vector of the corresponding factor in the layer. Combined with the safety state score of the factors, the safety state score of the corresponding factors is obtained, and the safety state score of each factor is calculated layer by layer. Finally, the comprehensive assessment of target safety risk is realized. Taking the comprehensive assessment of safety risk of high speed train braking system as an example, The feasibility and effectiveness of the method are verified. The method can not only analyze the cause of the railway system failure and its influence degree, but also comprehensively evaluate the safety state of the whole system, and more comprehensively reflect the safety risk state of the system.
【作者单位】：中国铁道科学研究院铁道科学技术研究发展中心;
【基金】：中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划项目(2016F024,2015F030,2014YJ090)
【分类号】：U298

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