化工容器碎片引发多米诺效应事故研究历程与展望

发布时间：2018-02-23 19:35

本文关键词： 爆炸碎片多米诺效应蒙特卡罗模拟击中概率模型破坏失效模式　出处：《化工进展》2017年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：化工园区或厂区内,容器爆炸产生的碎片击中临近储罐或装置,可能会引发多米诺效应事故。本文系统分析了国内外有关爆炸碎片产生、飞行、击中及穿透破坏目标容器的相关文献,介绍了爆炸碎片产生阶段与飞行阶段相关随机变量参数的确定方法,以及击中、穿透破坏目标容器的概率模型等方面的研究方法、研究进展,对主要研究内容进行对比。指出碎片类型不全面、击中目标容器判定准则欠精确、目标容器破坏失效准则过于简化、缺乏对爆炸碎片产生概率的研究以及缺乏对目标容器破坏失效后果的研究等不足,提出安全附件等"小型碎片"随机参数的确定、考虑碎片形状体积的击中概率模型、目标容器破坏失效模式与判断准则的改进、爆炸碎片产生概率的计算方法以及目标容器破坏失效后果严重程度的确定是该领域进一步的研究与完善方向。
[Abstract]:In the chemical industry park or plant, the debris produced by the container explosion will hit the nearby storage tank or device, which may lead to domino effect accident. This paper systematically analyzes the occurrence and flight of the explosion debris at home and abroad. This paper introduces the methods of determining the parameters of random variables related to the stage of explosion debris generation and flight, as well as the probabilistic model of hitting and penetrating destruction vessel, etc. The main contents of the study are compared. It is pointed out that the debris types are not comprehensive, the criteria for determining the vessel hitting the target are not accurate, and the failure criterion for the damage of the target vessel is too simplified. In this paper, the probability of explosion debris and the failure consequence of target vessel failure are not studied. The random parameters of "small debris" such as safety accessories are determined, and the hit probability model considering the shape and volume of debris is proposed. The improvement of failure mode and criterion of target vessel failure, the method of calculating the probability of explosion debris and the determination of the severity of failure consequence of target vessel are the direction of further research and improvement in this field.
【作者单位】：华南理工大学安全科学与工程研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(21576102)
【分类号】：TQ086

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