一种考虑认知不确定性的风险矩阵分析方法

发布时间：2018-02-26 14:48

本文关键词： 传统风险矩阵(CRM) 风险指数认知不确定性航天发射场低温液氢加注系统　出处：《中国安全科学学报》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为解决传统风险矩阵(CRM)元素等级分配的非一致性问题,提出一种考虑风险决策者认知不确定性的风险矩阵分析方法。首先,采用等级序数"乘法原则"计算风险指数,并将风险指数作为风险矩阵元素等级分配的依据。其次,引入风险决策者关注度系数,用来描述风险潜在信息的影响,并以指数的形式修正传统风险指数计算模型。最后,将修正后的连续概率后果分布(CPCD)映射到CRM。以风险指数最大化原则分配风险矩阵元素等级。运用该方法,分析某航天发射场某型低温液氢加注系统风险等级量化过程。结果表明,采用修正后的风险指数计算模型,能够得到不同加注工序不同关注度系数的风险等级分配方案,风险决策者的认知不确定性对低温液氢加注风险等级分配有影响。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem of the inconsistency of the traditional risk matrix (CRM) element level allocation, a risk matrix analysis method considering the cognitive uncertainty of the risk decision makers is proposed. Firstly, the risk index is calculated by the hierarchical ordinal "multiplicative principle". Secondly, the risk decision maker's attention coefficient is introduced to describe the influence of risk potential information, and the traditional risk index calculation model is modified in the form of index. The modified continuous probability consequence distribution (CPCDD) is mapped to CRM. The risk matrix element grade is assigned by the principle of maximization of risk index. By using this method, the risk grade quantization process of a low temperature liquid hydrogen injection system in a space launch site is analyzed. The results show that, By using the modified risk index calculation model, the risk grade allocation scheme with different injection processes and different attention coefficients can be obtained. The cognitive uncertainty of risk decision makers has an effect on the risk rating allocation of cryogenic liquid hydrogen injection.
【作者单位】：装备学院航天装备系;装备学院装备发展战略研究所;
【分类号】：X913

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