二型模糊DEMATEL-ANP多准则决策方法及其在轨道运营安全评价中的应用

发布时间：2018-03-04 05:25

本文选题：地铁运营安全评估　切入点：模糊决策　出处：《东南大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着地铁在城市交通系统中占据的地位越来越重要,地铁运营安全评价问题受到越来越多的重视。地铁运营系统是个复杂的集成系统,不仅包括管理部门的制度规定,人员操作和设备设施的配合,还包括复杂的运营环境。在以往的国内外研究中,地铁运营安全评价问题大多是将各个系统当成独立的个体,没有考虑系统之间的影响关系,并且在对安全状况进行具体评估时往往采用绝对的定量计算,而忽略了其中的定性分析,从而使得评价结果具有一定的片面性。为了克服以上研究弊端,本文在对地铁运营安全评价问题特性进行深入分析的基础上提出了基于二型模糊环境下的DEMATEL-ANP-VIKOR模型。总的来说,本文在理论构建和模型创新中有以下几个特点:首先,通过对地铁运营安全问题的分析,提出从定量与定性相结合的角度对问题进行研究,并且考虑到定性指标评价时的不确定性,本文引入了二型模糊决策理论,将专家意见通过语言变量转化成合适的二型模糊数值进行计算。另外,在对国际地铁运营事故统计和分析基础上,找出影响地铁运营安全的主要因素,从而构建了较为合理的地铁运营安全评价指标体系。其次,基于地铁运营安全评价问题本身的多准则性和定量指标与定性指标相结合的特点,本文基于二型模糊理论构建了 type-2 DEMATEL-ANP模型,不仅在type-2 DEMATEL阶段计算时考虑到了指标间的相互影响关系,通过定量化的计算构建了准则层关系网络图,同时利用type-2 ANP模型构造了准则层之间和准则层内部的模糊判断矩阵,最后通过对超矩阵进行计算和求极限得到各指标的最终权重。最后,在type-2DEMATEL-ANP模型的基础上,本文提出了混合VIKOR方法,对定量化的指标按照传统的VIKOR算法进行计算,对定性化的指标用提出的type-2 VIKOR方法进行计算,通过定量和定性化的综合评估得到最后的决策值,并在最后利用提出的地铁运营安全评价模型,对北京地铁运营中的六条线路某统计当天的运营状况进行分析,从而验证了理论和模型的合理性。
[Abstract]:With the increasing importance of subway in the urban transportation system, more and more attention has been paid to the safety evaluation of subway operation. Subway operation system is a complex integrated system, including not only the regulations of the management department, but also the management system. The cooperation of personnel operation and equipment and facilities also includes complex operation environment. In the past researches at home and abroad, the problems of subway operation safety evaluation mostly regard each system as an independent individual, without considering the influence relationship between the systems. In order to overcome the disadvantages of the above research, the qualitative analysis is ignored and the evaluation results are one-sidedness in order to overcome the disadvantages of the above research, in order to overcome the disadvantages of the above research, the quantitative calculation is often used in the specific assessment of the security situation. Based on the in-depth analysis of the characteristics of subway safety evaluation problems, this paper puts forward the DEMATEL-ANP-VIKOR model based on the two-type fuzzy environment. In general, this paper has the following characteristics in the theoretical construction and model innovation: first of all, Based on the analysis of the safety of subway operation, this paper puts forward to study the problem from the angle of combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis, and considering the uncertainty of qualitative index evaluation, this paper introduces the two-type fuzzy decision theory. In addition, on the basis of statistics and analysis of international subway operation accidents, the main factors affecting subway operation safety are found out. Therefore, a more reasonable evaluation index system of subway operation safety is constructed. Secondly, based on the characteristics of multiple criteria and quantitative indicators and qualitative indicators of subway operation safety evaluation, In this paper, the type-2 DEMATEL-ANP model is constructed based on the type 2 fuzzy theory, which not only takes into account the interaction between the indexes in the calculation of type-2 DEMATEL, but also constructs the relationship network diagram of the criterion layer through the quantitative calculation. At the same time, the fuzzy judgment matrix between criterion layer and inside criterion layer is constructed by using type-2 ANP model. Finally, the final weight of each index is obtained by calculating the supermatrix and calculating the limit. Finally, on the basis of type-2DEMATEL-ANP model, the final weight of each index is obtained. In this paper, a hybrid VIKOR method is proposed. The quantitative index is calculated according to the traditional VIKOR algorithm, the qualitative index is calculated by the proposed type-2 VIKOR method, and the final decision value is obtained through the quantitative and qualitative comprehensive evaluation. Finally, by using the proposed safety evaluation model of subway operation, the paper analyzes the operation status of a certain six lines in Beijing subway operation on the same day, and verifies the rationality of the theory and the model.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U298

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