基于风险的化工园区企业准入模型研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 23:08

本文选题：化工园区　切入点：风险评估　出处：《中国石油大学（华东）》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：化工园区是现代化学工业发展形成的必然产物，它顺应了国际化、集约化、最优化和效益最大化的时代发展趋势，是今后化工产业发展的主导方向，，然而由于我国化工园区起步较晚，化工行业发展迅猛，对企业准入化工园区的风险评估模型并没有达成一致共识，导致化工园区大量危险化学品带来的风险增加，从而存在许多安全隐患的新问题，因此，本文对基于风险对企业准入化工园区的模型展开研究，为我国化工园区的安全发展和企业安全准入提供理论指导。目前我国化工园区企业准入领域的研究还处于探索阶段，是一个比较崭新的研究方向，因此，为了提高我国化工园区的整体安全性，降低事故发生的概率以及发生事故后应急救援能力，有必要对准入化工园区的企业进行风险评估，对准入企业进行综合的准入指标评定，以及考察企业准入后对整个化工园区安全容量的影响，从而有效、合理、系统的对化工园区和园区内的企业进行管理，避免重大事故的发生，降低事故发生的概率，提高事故发生后应急救援的能力，促进化工园区和企业更高效、更安全的发展。本文首先根据我国化工企业存在的危险因素进行了分析，对企业准入的风险评估原则、程序和模型进行了说明，并根据化工园区企业众多的特点，对可能发生的多米诺效应进行了阐述；其次，对化工园区的安全容量进行了分析和定义，并说明准入企业的安全容量计算方法，阐述了企业准入后对整个化工园区安全容量影响的分析过程；根据我国化工园区和化工企业的特点，对准入企业建立了综合指标评价体系，从3个大项，54个要素出发，对准入企业各个方面进行综合衡量，并采用层次-模糊综合评价的方法对指标进行综合评估；然后，根据对准入企业的风险评估、安全容量影响的分析、综合指标的评价建立了基于风险的企业准入化工园区的模型，并对模型进行了详细的说明；最后论文根据建立的模型进行了实例应用研究，通过Phast软件对准入企业主要产生的风险的事故后果、个人风险和社会风险进行模拟，采用层次分析法和模糊数学的方法对企业的安全性进行了综合指标评判，并对企业准入后对整个园区的安全容量影响进行了说明，根据结果对准入企业找出不足和缺陷，并提出相应准入的建议。
[Abstract]:Chemical Industrial Park is the inevitable product of the development of modern chemical industry. It conforms to the trend of internationalization, intensification, optimization and maximization of benefits, and is the leading direction of chemical industry development in the future. However, due to the late start of chemical parks and the rapid development of chemical industry in China, there is no consensus on the risk assessment model of enterprises entering chemical parks, which leads to the increase of risk caused by a large number of dangerous chemicals in chemical parks. As a result, there are many new problems of safety hidden dangers. Therefore, this paper studies the model of enterprise access to chemical park based on risk, and provides theoretical guidance for the safety development of chemical industry park and the safety access of enterprises in our country. At present, the research on the access field of chemical industry park enterprises in China is still in the exploratory stage, which is a relatively new research direction. Therefore, in order to improve the overall safety of the chemical industry park in China, In order to reduce the probability of accidents and the ability of emergency rescue after accidents, it is necessary to evaluate the risks of enterprises entering the chemical industry park, and to evaluate the comprehensive access indexes for the enterprises involved. And to investigate the impact of the entry of enterprises on the safety capacity of the whole chemical industry park, so as to effectively, reasonably, systematically manage the chemical industry park and the enterprises in the park, avoid the occurrence of major accidents, and reduce the probability of accidents. In order to improve the ability of emergency rescue after accident and promote the development of chemical industry park and enterprise more efficiently and safely, this paper analyzes the risk factors of chemical enterprises in our country, and analyzes the risk assessment principle of enterprise access. The program and model are described, and according to the characteristics of the chemical industry park enterprises, the possible domino effect is described. Secondly, the safety capacity of the chemical park is analyzed and defined. It also explains the calculation method of the safety capacity of the access enterprises, expounds the analysis process of the influence of the entry of the enterprises on the safety capacity of the whole chemical park, according to the characteristics of the chemical parks and chemical enterprises in our country, A comprehensive index evaluation system has been set up in the alignment enterprise, which is based on three major items, 54 elements, and all aspects of the integrated evaluation, and adopts the method of hierarchical and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to evaluate the index synthetically. According to the risk assessment of the enterprise, the analysis of the influence of safety capacity and the evaluation of the comprehensive index, the model of entering the chemical industry park based on the risk is established, and the model is explained in detail. Finally, according to the established model, the paper carries on the example application research, through the Phast software to enter the enterprise the main risk accident consequence, the personal risk and the social risk carries on the simulation. The method of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy mathematics are used to judge the safety of the enterprise, and the influence on the safety capacity of the whole park after the entry of the enterprise is explained. According to the results, the shortcomings and defects are found out. And puts forward the corresponding admission suggestion.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学（华东）
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TQ086

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