近30年新疆县域尺度洪旱灾害空间聚类研究

发布时间：2018-03-10 03:25

  本文选题：洪旱　切入点：聚集性　出处：《自然灾害学报》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：干旱和洪水灾害是新疆主要的自然灾害,其发生频率高,分布广且危害严重。洪旱灾害空间聚集研究对防灾减灾、救灾物资科学配置的意义重大。以近30年新疆各县市洪旱灾害次数为基础,运用全局Moran’s I系数、Moran散点图和Anselin局部Moran’s I系数分析了新疆县域尺度洪旱灾害的空间自相关性,揭示了新疆洪旱灾害的局部聚集和局部异常特征。全局空间自相关结果表明,县域尺度干旱、暴雨与升温混合型洪水、融雪型洪水和山洪Moran’s I Z值大于0.01,置信水平为2.54,表明洪旱灾害在行政单位间存在很强的空间自相关性,空间分布呈聚集状态。局部空间自相关结果表明,干旱聚集区比较分散,主要分布在东疆哈密地区和北疆伊犁地区、昌吉回族自治州、阿勒泰地区和南疆和田地区;1984-1989年干旱聚集程度最高,研究时段内聚集整体呈下降趋势,各时段均有少数几个县市与邻近县市局部空间自相关显著,局部区域呈集聚或离散的空间格局。各类型洪水"高-高"聚集空间差异显著,融雪型洪水聚集在塔城地区和克州,山洪聚集在哈密地区哈密市、伊吾和巴里坤县与周边木垒县;暴雨与升温混合型洪水聚集在博州的温泉、博乐和精河县以及伊犁地区的霍城县。
[Abstract]:Drought and flood disasters are the main natural disasters in Xinjiang, which have high frequency, wide distribution and serious harm. The scientific allocation of disaster relief materials is of great significance. Based on the number of flood and drought disasters in various counties and cities of Xinjiang in the past 30 years, the spatial autocorrelation of flood and drought disasters at county scale in Xinjiang is analyzed by using the global Moran's I coefficient and the Anselin partial Moran's I coefficient. The characteristics of local accumulation and local anomaly of flood and drought disaster in Xinjiang are revealed. The global spatial autocorrelation results show that the mixed flood of drought, rainstorm and temperature rise at county scale. The Moran's I Z value of snowmelt flood and mountain flood is greater than 0.01, and the confidence level is 2.54, which indicates that there is a strong spatial autocorrelation between administrative units and the spatial distribution of flood and drought disaster is aggregated. The local spatial autocorrelation results show that the arid accumulation area is scattered. Mainly distributed in Hami area of eastern Xinjiang and Yili area of northern Xinjiang, Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture, Altay region and Hotan area of southern Xinjiang had the highest drought accumulation from 1984 to 1989, and the aggregate accumulation showed a downward trend during the period of study. In each period, a few counties and cities have a significant autocorrelation with the adjacent counties and cities, and the local areas show a spatial pattern of agglomeration or dispersion. There are significant differences in the accumulation space between high and high flood types, and snow-melting floods gather in Tacheng area and Kezhou. The torrential torrents are concentrated in Hami City, Iwu and Barikun County and the surrounding Muli County. The rainstorms and mixed floods are concentrated in the hot springs, Bole and Jinghe counties in Bozhou and Huocheng County in Yili area.
【作者单位】： 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所;中亚大气科学研究中心;新疆维吾尔自治区气候中心;长安大学地质工程与测绘学院;成都理工大学地球科学学院空间信息技术系;
【基金】：国家重点研发项目(2017FY10050) 国家自然科学基金项目(41301386,41505077)~~
【分类号】：X43
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本文编号：1591560