危险货物高温限运政策研究

发布时间：2018-03-10 04:04

本文选题：危险货物运输　切入点：系统动力学　出处：《北京交通大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：摘要：随着石油化工产业的快速发展,危险化学品的需求量逐年增加,危险货物运输量也随之增长。由于危险货物的高危险性特点,其安全运输问题变得日益严峻。近年来我国夏季高温天气较为频繁,危险货物道路运输事故高发。为了保障夏季高温危险货物的运输安全,各地政府部门纷纷出台道路危险货物高温限运政策,此类政策往往站在运输安全的角度考虑,忽略了对企业经济发展造成的影响,不利于政策的贯彻落实。因此,如何制定一个科学合理的高温限运政策,使得运输安全与企业经济发展达到平衡显得尤其重要。为了分析高温环境下危险货物道路运输系统,预演高温限运政策方案与运输安全、企业经济效益之间的动态关系,本文在对危险货物道路运输系统进行分析的基础上,运用系统动力学(System Dynamics,简称SD)方法建立道路危险货物高温限运政策优化仿真模型,并进行实例分析,为制定合理的危险货物高温限运政策提供科学依据。研究内容主要如下：首先,介绍了本文的研究背景、研究意义,明确了研究目的、研究主要内容、研究方法和技术路线：其次,概括性地阐述了研究方法的相关理论,分析了危险货物道路运输系统以及高温限运政策对运输作业、运输安全、企业经济的影响。然后,进行道路危险货物高温限运政策仿真模型研究,将其划分为“运输需求”、“法规”、“违规运输行为”、“事故”与“企业经济”五个子系统,并分别进行分析,确定其主要因素及其相互之间的耦合关系,建立结构方程式,构建SD模型。最后,以北京市为例应用该模型,采用问卷调查、重点企业访谈、历史数据搜集分析、经验数据分析等方法确定模型参数及具体的限运政策方案(包括限运时段、罚款标准、基准处罚率)。并模拟分析实施不同方案时,事故数及企业利润的变化情况,以此为依据比较不同限运政策方案的优劣。本文得出的主要结论有：危险货物高温限运政策对于减少危险货物道路运输事故数的作用显著,但是在制定政策时需要考虑对企业经济效益的影响。当政策过于严格时,不利于企业的经济发展；当政策过于放松时,企业则会为了获得经济利益,冒险违规运输,达不到制定政策的初衷。以北京市为例,采取中等严格政策(限运30天,罚款标准为5000元/起,基准处罚率为50%)最为合适。
[Abstract]:Abstract: with the rapid development of petrochemical industry, the demand for dangerous chemicals increases year by year, and the volume of transport of dangerous goods also increases. In recent years, the high temperature weather in summer in our country is more frequent, and the accidents of road transportation of dangerous goods are very high. In order to ensure the transportation safety of dangerous goods in summer high temperature, The local government departments have issued the road dangerous goods high temperature limit transportation policy one after another, this kind of policy often stands in the transportation safety angle consideration, neglects to the enterprise economic development which causes the influence, does not favor the policy to carry out. Therefore, It is very important to make a scientific and reasonable policy of limiting transportation at high temperature so as to balance transportation safety with the development of enterprise economy. In order to analyze the road transportation system of dangerous goods in the high temperature environment and the dynamic relationship between the policy scheme of high temperature limited transportation policy and transportation safety and the economic benefits of enterprises, this paper analyzes the road transportation system of dangerous goods. The optimization simulation model of high temperature limited transport policy of dangerous goods on the road is established by using the system dynamics system dynamics (SDS) method, and an example analysis is carried out to provide the scientific basis for making a reasonable policy of limiting the transportation of dangerous goods at high temperature. The main contents of the research are as follows:. First of all, it introduces the research background, significance, purpose, main contents, research methods and technical route. Secondly, the relevant theories of the research methods are summarized. This paper analyzes the influence of road transportation system of dangerous goods and high temperature limited transportation policy on transportation operation, transportation safety and enterprise economy. Then, the simulation model of road dangerous goods high temperature limited transportation policy is studied. It is divided into five subsystems: "transportation demand", "regulation", "illegal transportation behavior", "accident" and "enterprise economy". The main factors and their coupling relations are analyzed, and the structural equations are established. Finally, taking Beijing as an example, this model is used to determine the parameters of the model and the specific scheme of the limited transportation policy (including the period of limited transportation) by means of questionnaire survey, interviews with key enterprises, historical data collection and analysis, empirical data analysis, etc. The standard of fine and the rate of benchmark penalty are also simulated and analyzed in order to compare the advantages and disadvantages of different schemes in terms of the number of accidents and the profit of the enterprises. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: the policy of high temperature and limited transportation of dangerous goods plays a significant role in reducing the number of accidents caused by road transportation of dangerous goods, but the impact on the economic benefits of enterprises should be considered when the policy is formulated. When the policy is too strict, It is not conducive to the economic development of enterprises; when the policy is too relaxed, enterprises will risk illegal transportation in order to obtain economic benefits, thus failing to achieve the original intention of making policies. Take Beijing as an example, adopt a moderately strict policy (limited to 30 days, The fine standard is 5000 yuan / from, the benchmark penalty rate is 50%) is the most appropriate.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U492.8

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