基于多指标加权灰靶决策的煤与瓦斯突出预测指标研究

发布时间：2018-03-10 12:30

本文选题：煤与瓦斯突出　切入点：预测指标　出处：《辽宁工程技术大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：煤与瓦斯突出的预测和防治是突出矿井万事之首,准确的预测方法和合理的预测指标及其临界值不但能够降低煤与瓦斯突出的危害还能为合理设计防突方案及措施提供依据。采用现场试验、理论分析相结合的方法,以章村煤矿工作面煤与瓦斯突出预测为工程背景,对突出工作面煤与瓦斯突出预测敏感指标及其临界值和最优区间进行了研究。建立了多指标加权灰靶决策模型,通过模型求解得出突出工作面煤与瓦斯突出预测三个单项指标的排序是△h2gS,单项指标中最不适应使用的指标是S,指出敏感指标为△h2、g。建立了工作面煤与瓦斯突出预测的综合指标F’的改进多指标加权灰靶决策模型。计算得出了21个决策评价方案与效果向量的靶心距,得出F’临界值的排序,排序第一的是F’=400,并列排序第二的是F’=390和380,即F’理论最优临界值为400,其次是390和380。建立了工作面煤与瓦斯突出预测指标临界区间的灰色多级多指标加权区间数关联决策模型,根据一级决策模型得出F’临界值的最优区间为[350,400],在一级决策所得最优区间的基础上开展了二级决策评价,得出最优区间为[370,380]。以上两个模型中临界值具有一个交叉即F’值取380为最优临界值,既能保证具有较近的靶心距又能保证落在最优区间内,证明在煤与瓦斯突出预测敏感指标及其临界值研究中将以上两个模型综合使用对指标临界值的确定具有更严谨、更科学的作用,能够提高临界值的精度和严谨性。通过该矿工作面煤与瓦斯突出预测工作现场实际验证了综合指标F’及其临界值的合理性,对现场工作面煤与瓦斯突出预测具有具有指导意义。
[Abstract]:The prediction and prevention of coal and gas outburst is the first of all things in an outburst mine. Accurate prediction method, reasonable prediction index and its critical value can not only reduce the harm of coal and gas outburst, but also provide basis for reasonable design of outburst prevention schemes and measures. Based on the prediction of coal and gas outburst in Zhangcun coal face as engineering background, the sensitive index and critical value and optimal interval of coal and gas outburst prediction in coal and gas outburst working face are studied, and the decision model of weighted grey target with multiple indexes is established. By solving the model, it is concluded that the order of three single indexes of coal and gas outburst prediction in outburst working face is h2gSand the most unsuitable index is S. it is pointed out that the sensitive index is h2g. the coal and gas outburst of working face is established. An improved multi-index weighted grey target decision model for predicting the synthetic index F'is presented. The target distance between 21 decision evaluation schemes and effect vectors is calculated. We get the sort of critical value of F', The first ranking is FXY 400, and the second is FGW 390 and 380, that is, the optimal critical value of F' theory is 400, followed by 390 and 380. A grey multilevel multiindex weighted interval correlation decision model for predicting coal and gas outburst in coal face is established. According to the first-order decision model, the optimal interval of the critical value of F'is [350,400]. Based on the optimal interval obtained from the first-order decision, the second-order decision evaluation is carried out. It is concluded that the optimal interval is [370,380]. The critical value of the above two models has a crossover, that is, the F' value is taken as the optimal critical value, which can guarantee both the close range of the target center and the fall within the optimal interval. It is proved that in the study of sensitive index and critical value of coal and gas outburst prediction, it is more precise and scientific to use the above two models to determine the critical value of the index. It can improve the accuracy and preciseness of the critical value. The rationality of the comprehensive index F'and its critical value has been verified by the work site of coal and gas outburst prediction in the coal and gas mining face of this mine, which is of guiding significance to the prediction of coal and gas outburst in the working face.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁工程技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TD713

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