高危系统组织安全行为主观博弈研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 17:21

本文选题：高危系统　切入点：安全行为　出处：《西南交通大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着我国经济发展和社会进步,全国安全事故总数、较大事故数量和死亡人数虽呈稳步下降趋势,但数值仍然较大,且高危系统安全事故在其中占有很大比重。然而,高危系统多属于化工、能源、建筑、交通等国家支柱性行业,为维持国家经济的稳定运行和社会文化的持续发展起到了不可替代的作用。因此,研究高危系统安全风险的产生机制和影响因素,为降低其运行风险提供可操作的措施和建议,具有重要意义。本研究将认知心理学理论引入演化博弈中,形成一类主观博弈方法,并用于分析三类高危系统组织安全行为产生机制及影响因素,主要内容如下：首先,本研究基于理论与现实的矛盾提出了有意不安全行为产生和道路交通事故死亡人数占比过大这两个问题,并选择了主观博弈和分类对比两类针对性的方法。在分类方面,站在安全行为的直接执行者和安全风险的直接承担者的角度,将高危系统分成自组织、他组织和混合组织三类。其次,运用主观博弈方法考察了具有典型自组织特征的道路交通系统、具有典型他组织特征的核电站系统和具有典型混合组织特征的工程施工系统三类系统,得到当个体(驾驶员、监管员、作业员、施工员)不重视安全所造成的损失(安全风险的增加、处罚风险等)不小于重视安全所需要耗费的成本时,所有个体均倾向于重视安全的结论。经过对比分析还得到了高危系统混合组织形式有利于施工员和监管员两类个体重视安全的结论。第三,运用数值仿真实验考察了高危系统组织安全行为的影响因素,认为个体重视安全所需要耗费的成本的减少,基础安全风险、执行员(驾驶员、作业员和施工员的统称)的内部安全风险传导系数及来自于监管员的处罚风险的增加,有利于博弈双方重视安全；传导给监管员的安全风险系数的增加,仅有利于监管员重视安全；执行员内部的处罚风险的增加,仅有利于执行员重视安全；事故赔偿比例对演化结果不产生影响。同时,监管员和执行员重视安全的效果的提高,均有利于其自身重视安全,却不利于对方重视安全,意味着两类人员间存在“搭便车”的现象。第四,运用数值仿真实验进一步考察了两类人员重视安全的比例之间的关系,发现在其他参数取特定初始值的情况下,执行员和监管员重视安全的比例在较大初始值范围内呈现反向变动关系,前者收敛于1而后者收敛于0。然而,当前者初始值较小且后者初始值较大时,在他组织高危系统中,二者交互轨迹收敛方向发生变化；在混合组织高危系统中,二者交互轨迹收敛过程受到干扰。可见,他组织高危系统中,两类人员重视安全的比例在阈值附近的变化会对系统最终演化方向产生重大影响,且此过程对随机干扰比较敏感,最终出现类似“蝴蝶效应”的现象；而混合组织高危系统中两类比例在阈值附近的变化会对系统演化过程产生干扰,却未见对结果产生影响。此外,以JH高速铁路建设项目为例,详细阐述了在基于不安全行为矫正的工程安全方案双螺旋管理体系中,由模块化的方案编制、全程动态的宣传教育、自动可视的方案执行监控和立体化的评价改进四部分组成的组织行为链带动个体行为链螺旋上升、持续改进的过程和机理,为高危系统组织安全行为改进提供了可操作的措施和建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with China's economic development and social progress, and the number of accidents, the larger the number of accidents and deaths have declined steadily, but the value is still large, and the safety accident risk system occupies a large proportion in them. However, the high-risk system belongs to the chemical industry, energy, construction, transportation and other national pillar industry, an irreplaceable role for the sustainable development of the national economy to maintain stable operation and the social and cultural factors. Therefore, the producing mechanism and effect of risk system security risk, in order to reduce the operation risk measures and suggestions for operation, which is of great significance.
In this study, we introduce the theory of cognitive psychology into evolutionary game, form a subjective game method, and analyze the mechanism and influencing factors of three kinds of high-risk organizations' safety behavior.
First of all, the contradiction between theory and reality is put forward based on intentional unsafe behavior and road traffic accident deaths accounted for over two of this problem, and the subjective game and compare the two methods for classification. The classification, on the safe behavior directly bear direct executors and security the risk of the perspective, the risk system is divided into self organization, he organized and mixed three types.
Secondly, effects of road traffic system has a typical self organizing feature using subjective game method, three kinds of system engineering construction system with nuclear power system typical of his organizational characteristics and typical characteristics of the hybrid organization, when individuals (drivers, supervisors, workers, construction workers) do not pay attention to safety caused by the loss (increase the security risk of punishment risk etc.) is not less than the safety that takes the cost when all the individuals are inclined to pay attention to the safety of the conclusion. Through contrastive analysis has been mixed form conducive to high-risk system construction workers and supervisors two individuals to attach importance to the safety of the conclusion.
Third, factors affecting the risk system organization safety were investigated by numerical simulation, that the individual needs to reduce the cost of the safety cost, basic safety risk, the execution officer (driver, operator and construction workers collectively) increased the internal security risk conduction coefficient and from regulatory penalties have risk. The two sides of the game to pay attention to the safety; to increase the safety coefficient of risk conduction of regulators, regulators can only pay attention to safety; increase executive internal risk of punishment, only to executive pay attention to the safety accident; compensation ratio does not affect the evolution results. At the same time, supervisors and executive attention safety effect improvement are conducive to their own safety, is not conducive to their attention to security, implies the existence of the phenomenon of "hitchhike" two types of personnel.
Fourth, the use of numerical simulation to study the relationship between the two kinds of personnel safety ratio, found certain initial value in the case of other parameters, executive and supervision of staff attaches great importance to the safety in the proportion of large initial value showed the reverse changes in the relationship within the scope of the former converges to 1 while the latter converges to 0. however. The initial value is small and the initial value is larger, in his organization risk system, the two interactive track convergence direction change; in high-risk hybrid organization system, the two track interaction convergence process is disrupted. Obviously, he organized the risk system, two kinds of personnel safety changes in the proportion of near threshold will the system evolution direction has great influence, and this process is sensitive to the random disturbance, eventually appear similar to the "Butterfly Effect" phenomenon; and two kinds of hybrid organization risk system The changes of the ratio near the threshold will interfere with the evolution of the system, but have not been affected by the results.
In addition, the JH high-speed railway construction project as an example, introduced in detail based on the double helix engineering safety management system scheme of correction of unsafe behavior in the program by the modular system, publicity and education throughout the dynamic evaluation, automatic visual monitoring and implementation of three-dimensional improved four part organization behavior chain composed of individual animals behavior of chain spiral, continuous improvement process and mechanism, provides measures and suggestions for the operation of the organization for security risk system behavior improvement.

【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X91

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