基于DEMATEL的铁路行车人因事故关键因素实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-14 18:00

本文选题：安全工程　切入点：铁路　出处：《安全与环境学报》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：针对铁路行车人因事故受多因素交互影响的问题,提出了一种基于信息熵和DEMATEL法耦合的铁路行车人因事故关键因素实证分析方法。首先依据铁路行车人因事故认知行为模型,从感知、决策、计划和执行4个过程分析铁路行车人因事故的影响因素;然后综合运用信息熵和DEMATEL法构建关键因素量化识别模型,利用中心度和原因度两个参数分析铁路行车人因事故的关键影响因素;最后,结合2008—2013年铁路行车人因事故数据进行实证分析。结果表明,机车操作人员相关情形记忆失误、情景诊断失误、未严格执行操作规则和采取错误行动是铁路行车人因事故的关键影响因素。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem that railway drivers are affected by multiple factors, an empirical analysis method based on the coupling of information entropy and DEMATEL method is proposed. Firstly, according to the cognitive behavior model of railway driver accidents, an empirical analysis method is proposed. This paper analyzes the influencing factors of railway human accidents from the four processes of perception, decision making, planning and execution, and then constructs a quantitative identification model of key factors by using information entropy and DEMATEL method. Two parameters, centrality and cause degree, are used to analyze the key influencing factors of railway human accident. Finally, combined with the data of railway human accident from 2008 to 2013, the results show that the locomotive operator has memory errors in related situations. The fault of scene diagnosis, the failure to strictly execute the operation rules and the wrong action are the key influencing factors of railway accidents.
【作者单位】：安徽科技学院管理学院;
【基金】：安徽省哲学社会科学规划青年项目(AHSKQ2016D25) 安徽省高校科学研究项目人文社科重大项目(SK2017ZD44) 安徽科技学院人文社科一般项目(SRC2016419)
【分类号】：U298.51

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