基于前景理论和区间数的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评价

发布时间：2018-03-15 18:08

本文选题：前景理论　切入点：瓦斯爆炸　出处：《中国安全科学学报》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为评估煤矿瓦斯爆炸的灾害风险,结合前景理论与模糊综合评价理论,建立风险评价模型。根据煤矿瓦斯爆炸的形成条件和事故致因理论,建立风险评价体系;运用前景理论,以统计推断计算的区间数期望值为参考点,确定各指标属性值为区间数的决策权重,结合模糊综合评价理论与区间数排序原理,建立基于区间数的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险模糊综合评价模型;运用该模型对某地3座煤矿进行风险评估,风险评价结果与煤矿的生产实际情况一致。结果表明:该评价方法克服了人的有限理性行为对决策时的主观期望效用的影响,使评价结果更加客观、科学。
[Abstract]:In order to evaluate the disaster risk of gas explosion in coal mine, combining prospect theory with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory, the risk evaluation model is established. According to the formation conditions of gas explosion in coal mine and the theory of accident cause, the risk evaluation system is established, and the prospect theory is used. With the expected value of interval number calculated by statistical inference as the reference point, the decision weight of the attribute value of each index is determined as interval number, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory and the sorting principle of interval number are combined. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of coal mine gas explosion risk based on interval number is established, and the risk assessment of three coal mines in a certain place is carried out by using this model. The results of risk assessment are consistent with the actual situation of coal mine production. The results show that the evaluation method overcomes the influence of human limited rational behavior on the subjective expected utility in decision-making and makes the evaluation results more objective and scientific.
【作者单位】：湖南工学院安全与环境工程学院;辽宁工程技术大学安全科学与工程学院;矿山热动力灾害与防治教育部重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助(51074086) 国家“十二五”基础研究重大专项(2011ZX05041-003)
【分类号】：TD712.7

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