海上船舶溢油风险综合评价指标体系研究

发布时间：2018-03-18 14:27

本文选题：船舶溢油　切入点：风险　出处：《武汉理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着航运市场的繁荣和船舶大型化的发展,船舶溢油事故频发,给海洋环境、海洋生物、人类健康及社会经济发展带来了严重后果,船舶溢油事故已成为严重的环境问题和社会问题。国内外研究比较多的是港区油轮溢油风险,也有对某一海域的溢油风险研究,但很少有人涉及到非油轮船舶在海上(沿海水域)航行过程中的溢油风险研究,因此采用恰当的方法对船舶溢油风险进行评价,有利于针对船舶溢油事故的风险因素,提出科学、合理、可操作的预防措施,降低溢油风险。这对保护海洋环境和生态资源,建立船舶污染应急反应体系意义重大。本文首先回顾了近年来国内外海上船舶重大溢油事故,并结合国内外船舶溢油风险研究现状,运用模糊综合评价方法(FCE)分析了可能导致海上船舶溢油风险的四大影响因素(船舶状况、船员因素、水文因素及气象因素),建立了海上船舶溢油风险综合评价指标体系。然后,利用层次分析法(AHP)分析各影响因素的权重和隶属度,建立海上船舶溢油风险的模糊综合评价模型,运用模糊综合评价方法进行评价,并用该评价模型评价厦门水域集装箱船舶的溢油风险,与风险矩阵评价法进行对比,得出所构建的评价指标体系具有可行性。
[Abstract]:With the prosperity of shipping market and the large-scale development of ships, the frequent oil spills of ships have brought serious consequences to the marine environment, marine life, human health and social and economic development. The ship oil spill accident has become a serious environmental and social problem. The risk of oil spill from oil tankers in the port area and the oil spill risk in a certain sea area have been studied more at home and abroad. However, there are few people involved in the study of oil spill risk of non-oil tanker ships during navigation at sea (coastal waters). Therefore, it is beneficial to use appropriate methods to evaluate the risk factors of oil spill accidents. Scientific, reasonable and operational preventive measures are put forward to reduce the risk of oil spills, which is of great significance to protect marine environment and ecological resources and to establish an emergency response system for marine pollution. This paper first reviews the major oil spill accidents of ships at home and abroad in recent years, and combines the present situation of research on oil spill risk of ships at home and abroad. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEE) is used to analyze the four factors (ship condition, crew factor, hydrological factor and meteorological factor) that may lead to the oil spill risk, and the comprehensive evaluation index system of the oil spill risk is established. The weight and membership degree of the influencing factors are analyzed by using the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the oil spill risk of marine ships is established, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the risk. The evaluation model is used to evaluate the oil spill risk of container ships in Xiamen waters, and compared with the risk matrix evaluation method, it is concluded that the evaluation index system is feasible.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U698.7

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