不确定灾情信息融合下空地联运协同应急决策研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 12:39

本文选题：空地联运　切入点：应急救援　出处：《南京航空航天大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在应急救援及突发事件的各项处理措施中,航空运输以其救援范围广、响应速度快等优势成为世界范围内广泛采取的救灾手段,而地面运输以其对灾害的强适应性和灵活性等特点成为应急救援最可靠的补充运输方式。本文首先提出将K-means聚类与范例推理相结合的方法对各灾区的应急救援物资需求量进行预测,并提出反馈补偿K值的确定方法更科学合理的对历史灾情信息进行挖掘处理,提高了预测效率;其次考虑随机风对航空器运行轨迹的影响,建立航空应急救援调度多目标优化模型,并依据四川省历年地震灾害数据完成对从出救点直接运送到受灾点的航空运输方式的验证;然后考虑道路损毁条件下的动态路网产生的运输延误时间,提取地面应急交通流数据并对动态路网进行分析,构造地面运输调度多目标优化模型,确定空地联运中的地面调度配送方案;最后借鉴航空应急救援调度方法,结合三层救灾网络中的地面运输调度模型,以运输时间为线索,构建空地联运协同调度模型,并依据四川省地震灾害数据设计算例完成对空地联运协同调度方式的验证,结果表明,本文提出的空地联运协同调度模型能有效提高调度效率。
[Abstract]:Among the emergency rescue and emergency handling measures, air transportation has become a widely adopted means of disaster relief in the world because of its advantages of wide rescue scope and fast response speed. Ground transportation has become the most reliable supplementary transportation method for emergency rescue because of its strong adaptability and flexibility to disasters. Firstly, this paper proposes a method of combining K-means clustering with case-based reasoning for emergency relief in various disaster areas. Forecasting the demand for capital, The method of determining the K value of feedback compensation is put forward to mine and deal with the historical disaster information more scientifically and reasonably, which improves the forecasting efficiency. Secondly, considering the influence of random wind on the track of aircraft, The multi-objective optimization model of aviation emergency rescue dispatch is established, and the verification of the air transportation mode from the rescue point to the disaster spot is completed according to the earthquake disaster data of Sichuan Province over the years. Then considering the transportation delay time caused by the dynamic road network under the condition of road damage, the ground emergency traffic flow data are extracted and the dynamic road network is analyzed, and a multi-objective optimization model of ground transportation dispatching is constructed. Finally, using the aviation emergency rescue dispatching method for reference, combined with the ground transportation scheduling model in the three-tier disaster relief network, taking the transportation time as the clue, the cooperative scheduling model of air-to-ground combined transport is constructed. Based on the example of earthquake disaster data design in Sichuan province, the cooperative scheduling mode of air-to-ground combined transport is verified. The results show that the cooperative scheduling model proposed in this paper can effectively improve the scheduling efficiency.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X4;U116

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